To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Posted 15 Sep 08, 15:28
Message-id: 1.2623.0
Any thoughts on whether this is "The Big One"? It is now obvious that we are set to experience global recession at the least. Will we see a quick recovery or will this be a global depression?

We got the expected bloodbath on Wall Street from the Lehman bankruptcy. Dow fell 504 today. Bank of America had a shotgun marriage with Merril Lynch. Think about where we are: 3 of the 5 biggest investment banks at the beginning of this year no longer exist! Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been bailed out at a cost that could easily approach 300 billion or more.

And from what I can tell the carnage is nowhere near over. Washington Mutual, the largest savings and loan in the US appears unlikely to last much longer than a week. It may well be next weekend's Lehman. AIG, the largest insurer, is teetering on the brink of collapse and begging handouts from the government just to keep its doors open. Citi Group, the largest commercial bank may also be one of the next to go. And there are over 500 billion worth of Alt-A mortgages about to melt down that from all accounts I've heard are going to be worse than sub-prime. And let us not forget bad unemployment that only seems to be accelerating to the downside (at least in the US).

So are we near that much ballyhooed point of maximum pessimism that is supposed to signal a market turn-around that will leave this ugly mess behind as one more forgettable recession? Or, now that pretty much everyone who lived through the Great Depression is dead and no longer able to warn us, did we repeat those same mistakes and doom ourselves to a long-lasting economic depression?

To: iddi420Owners Club
From: babytOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.0
Posted 15 Sep 08, 15:38
Message-id: 1.2623.1
dang i need to buy stuff while its low.
to bad i aint got the money.
and no i dont think this is the big one.
it might have a great affect on our economy but it won;t be as bad as the depression
thats what i beleive
but who am i but a lowly college kid...?

To: iddi420Owners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.0
Posted 15 Sep 08, 15:47
Message-id: 1.2623.2
I think this one is going to rollercoaster quite a bit yet before it settles out any. hang on for a long ride I would say. Cant see anything changing much overnight except those prices.

To: TalismanOwners Club
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.2
Posted 15 Sep 08, 16:20
Message-id: 1.2623.3
Ripple in a pond...sub-prime driven so it has weeded out the greedy, unethical companies...short term impact (1-2 years for the US economy, 6-12 months for the rest of the world)...

To: MaestroOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.3
Posted 15 Sep 08, 17:49
Message-id: 1.2623.4
I think it's definitely more than a ripple. And remember the US is a little over a year into it already. It started last summer, even though the stock market did stage a rally to new highs in October. That was when they said it was contained to subprime and a couple billion dollars of write-downs.

The scope of the problem has been minimized and lied about all along so it is difficult to figure out where things really stand. One way they keep trying to be decitfully optimistic is by saying "well, over 1000 banks failed in the '80s and that wasn't too awful." What they leave out though is that just one bank that has failed so far, Indymac, is larger than all 1000+ banks that failed in the '80s combined. And there are bigger banks than Indymac that will yet collapse barring a miracle.

To: iddi420Owners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.0
Posted 15 Sep 08, 18:10
Message-id: 1.2623.5
Pritty sure its a US recession and not a Global Recession

To: DylanOwners Club
From: NutJob
Reply to: 1.2623.5
Posted 15 Sep 08, 18:12
Message-id: 1.2623.6
the banks and morgage companies are global.

To: DylanOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.5
Posted 15 Sep 08, 18:21
Message-id: 1.2623.7

Pritty sure its a US recession and not a Global Recession



Dont think so Dylan, its hitting the UK also already, we been in the bite of this whole credit crunch thing for nearly a year now also. Fuel prices keep fluctuating and food prices going through the roof. Thousands a month are losing their homes etc also. Economy here is on the knife edge of a full blown recession.

To: DylanOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.5
Posted 15 Sep 08, 19:08
Message-id: 1.2623.8
That decoupling theory has been put to bed now. The US economy still leads the world, at least for this cycle, and where it goes the rest of the world will follow. There were a lot of believers in decoupling and they traded accordingly, but now those trades are unwinding en masse and we are witnessing a dollar rally despite the US economic implosion.

To: iddi420Owners Club
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.8
Posted 15 Sep 08, 20:34
Message-id: 1.2623.9
A bit early to be put decoupling to bed...the US economy by virtue of being the largest is always going to have an impact...but it certainly isn't a tidal wave...and the effects are likely to be short term for the world economy (as they develop a non-US economy based solution to growing their economies, something which is long overdue) and a little more long term for the US because all this sub prime fueled growth has hidden some pretty severe structural problems with the US economy...

To: MaestroOwners Club
From: toddle2uOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.9
Posted 15 Sep 08, 22:17
Message-id: 1.2623.10
Maestro - You seem to be missing the point. A lot of UK banks own some of the US sub-prime mortgages and is having a severe effect on the banking sector here. Also Lehman employed 5000 people here who are unemployed. Wen are expecting 2M to be unemployed in the UK before the end of 2009.
This will truly be a global recession which I expect to last for 2-3yrs.

To: toddle2uOwners Club
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.10
Posted 15 Sep 08, 23:56
Message-id: 1.2623.11
Toddle, some context for you...

The US government has pledged 200 billion to prop up Fannie and Freddie, 29 billion for Bear Stearns, AIG is looking for a 40 billion lifeline and BoA has bought Merrill for 50 billion. So around 320 billion all up. I think these are the big ones. Some others may fall but they won't need the kind of bail out that Freddie & Fannie did.

That sounds like a lot of money. But in the context of US military spend of 700 billion a year it's peanuts. In fact, what this means is the US government is quite constrained in regard to throwing their weight around on the world stage (so no more situations like Georgia or sabre rattling over Iran). Wonderful stuff! The changing of the guard. And while this happens, Asian banks are buying up. I was reading today one Asian bank was saying you'd never be able to buy into the US market this cheaply again. Hysterical...especially as it's 10 years since the Asian financial crisis...these things can turn around quite quickly...

To: MaestroOwners Club
From: kyneticOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.11
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:04
Message-id: 1.2623.12
I don't know what most of this thread is about, but does anyone think this global recession will beat dorothy???Dunce

To: kyneticOwners Club
From: TK-hairboyOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.12
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:10
Message-id: 1.2623.13
And can it possibly have any impact on this? http://www.trackking.org/horse.php?hid=164812

To: MaestroOwners Club
From: toddle2uOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.11
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:19
Message-id: 1.2623.14
Maestro - Impressive figures. The only problem here in the UK is that our Govt. would never throw that sort of money around to help the economy. Yes they did it for Northern Rock but can't see them doing it again. There will be a lot of natural wastage over here with only the fittest business's surviving. There is an argument that that that is a good thing.
The UK Govt. is too hung up on inflation which is not something the American Govt. is too bothered about - if they need more money they just print it and sod inflation!

From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.13
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:20
Message-id: 1.2623.15
LOL...like the fillies and mares race at Rosehill last Saturday. Hairy, Dirty, Imagining and Illuminates were in the same race. Judged was the winner...

To: toddle2uOwners Club
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.14
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:36
Message-id: 1.2623.16
I've read that argument and somewhat agree it is better to let it happen rather than prop it up. I can't believe some chief executives of major lending institutions in the US aren't being lined up for stints in jail. They take the multi million dollar remuneration packages when things are going well but are surprisingly absent from blame or consequences when the manure hits the fan...
Edited by Maestro at 00:36, 16th Sep

To: MaestroOwners Club
From: RickiOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.16
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:39
Message-id: 1.2623.17
I agree totally - if they have stuffed up though their own greed then they should be held accountable for the damage they are doing.

To: RickiOwners Club
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.17
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:43
Message-id: 1.2623.18
And Greenspan...he was in charge when the Fed sat on it's hands and let it happen...and the politicians...they loved the economic growth figures but never took the time to see if it was sustainable growth...it's a bit like the environment...every else is doing it so we're not going to be the ones to pull the plug and make sensible decisions...we've got an electorate to bribe...

To: RickiOwners Club
From: toddle2uOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.17
Posted 16 Sep 08, 00:45
Message-id: 1.2623.19
I believe from what I have read that already many mortgage advisers in America who where involved in obtaining sub-prime mortgages for people who clearly couldn't afford them have been arrested. However, this doesn't go nearly far enough as they only put the mortgage applications in - it is the people who agreed and lent the money on the sub-prime mortgages in the pursuit of high returns who are the real criminals in this instance. That ultimately is the bank bosses!

To: TalismanOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.7
Posted 16 Sep 08, 01:13
Message-id: 1.2623.20


--------------------------------
Pritty sure its a US recession and not a Global Recession
--------------------------------


Dont think so Dylan, its hitting the UK also already, we been in the bite of this whole credit crunch thing for nearly a year now also. Fuel prices keep fluctuating and food prices going through the roof. Thousands a month are losing their homes etc also. Economy here is on the knife edge of a full blown recession.



Its just an International Correction

It will pick up when India gets off the ground and becomes the new china with economic growth at around 10%

To: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.20
Posted 16 Sep 08, 01:52
Message-id: 1.2623.21
I just think it is a wake up call. All the lending institutions will get really tight and cautious for a while, then gradually relax those standards until the same thing happens again. In the pursuit of profits you can't have standards better than someone else. They'll always win.

Reply to: 1.2623.21
Posted 16 Sep 08, 02:34
Message-id: 1.2623.22
I think Hairboy said it a few weeks back, that China and India would take over the power position the US has held for a long time......

I really dont know what to do. This was the largest drop in the DOW since 9/11, and today I'm sort of waiting to see what's going to happen.

I saw most of the European markets were pretty hard hit as well, yesterday, (well, except for the Germans). The Asian markets seemed ok...

I dont know who to blame, and I'm really not interested in that. The only thing i really do know for sure is that I think neither one of the bums we have running for President has a clue either.

McCain said yesterday our economy is "fundamentally strong". In fact, he gave almost the same speech that the American President gave in the early 30s, at the beginning of the Great Depression here.

And Obama wants to raise taxes, and even I know that during a recession, or possible depression, the last thing you do is raise taxes, because it forces companies to cut jobs.....and i didnt even major in economics in college. In fact, I didnt even take an economics class, I dont think...i know i took a math class, but if there's no money to count, that really doesnt do me any good either, does it?

I think I'll just vote for TK-Hairboy for President as a write-in vote, simply because he predicted this was going to happen....lol....

Seriously, does anyone out there really have a clue? I always thought if this happened, I would just run to Europe, but i dont know now.....at least I have a place to go there.....but Honk Kong is looking better and better all the time.

I think TK-Hairboy is right....but i dont think India's the place for me....Hong Kong is nice tho.

Maybe Yaggy should chime in here, because he's some kind of financial person who knows a great deal and has given me a lot of insight as to financial, umm, "things", but I know that everytime something like this happens, he starts going crazy at work.....Yaggy, are you out there??????

Cool

Oh, this doesn't mean that class league race purses are going to get smaller, right? no? whew...thank god. well, i guess everything's ok then.....cheers!

Drunk




Edited by chopchop at 02:37, 16th Sep
Edited by chopchop at 02:39, 16th Sep

From: patrik702Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.13
Posted 16 Sep 08, 02:47
Message-id: 1.2623.23

And can it possibly have any impact on this? http://www.trackking.org/horse.php?hid=164812



No wonder he is a fast finisher! Booooo!

Ever since Palin the she-wolf got nominated for the veep spot. It has been non-stop Michael Palin lines with my Brit friends over the footy weekends.

'The Castle Anthrax?!?'

To: patrik702Owners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.23
Posted 16 Sep 08, 02:55
Message-id: 1.2623.24
lol...she's so weird....you know, at first i liked obama, well, i take that back...

first i liked hillary, but she lost, so then i liked obama, mostly because i didnt like mccain, then palin came in and i thought she was kind of neat.

but now theyre saying she's spouting all these lies about the bridge to nowhere (wheverever that is) and trying to get her brother-in-law fired (which i think is ok, because i'd like to fire a couple of sisters-in-law, if i had a company and they worked for me), but then she said she wouldnt answer any questions about it, and now im just basically confused about the whole darned election.

who should i vote for? whenever i can make a poll (my poll thingy isnt working in my forum, and hasnt been for the last couple weeks), BUT when it does start working, maybe ill just ask in a poll who i should vote for, and the one with the most votes, well, that's who I'll vote for.
Edited by chopchop at 02:56, 16th Sep


To: chopchopOwners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.24
Posted 16 Sep 08, 03:00
Message-id: 1.2623.25
someone just told me on msn, that if i move to Hong Kong, then I would have to be a communist because it belongs to China now or something????? (When did that happen?).

Not that i have anything against communists, but gray is simply not my color....and i dont look good in those gray tunic things they have to wear, so HK is definitely out of the question....now im really confused.

Reply to: 1.2623.25
Posted 16 Sep 08, 03:38
Message-id: 1.2623.26
Are you serious Chop? Hong Kong has been part of China for years. In the old days China leased the land to the Brits, I think it was a 100 year lease, because they don't generally sell land (an issue my company is having now actually). Hong Kong did great, so when the lease came up they decided that they wouldn't let it be renewed, and as a result they got all of that development for free.

If I was britain, I would have flattened it on principle.

To: chopchopOwners Club
From: CarlosaOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.25
Posted 16 Sep 08, 03:59
Message-id: 1.2623.27
Come on Choppy, you're not doing nothing here to fend off the generalisation of Americans' knowledge of anything outside their own borders...

To: CarlosaOwners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.27
Posted 16 Sep 08, 04:06
Message-id: 1.2623.28
ok, ok, i know about the lease, lol....btw, it was 99 years, i think, not 100...

i was sort of joking because the person on msn told me i would have to become a communist, i really put it on there for his benefit....he's saying he really didnt know.

but i still dont look good in gray, so moving there is still out of the question.

btw, the guy on msn....he's not american....i wont say what nationality he is....but let's just say Queen Elizabeth II is still the titular head of state of the country he lives in.....

From: yaggyOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.26
Posted 16 Sep 08, 04:16
Message-id: 1.2623.29
In effect the reason is multi facited

In addition to Banks offering easy credit (greed), advisers offering mortgages to sub prime individuals who could not afford (greed) and individuals chasing the dream (greed) we can not ignore the effect central banks have had. They kept interest rates at such low levels not experienced for quite some time which fueled the above scenario. Nor can we ignore the lack or regulation/understanding in the financial market; especially the US/Wall St which was governed by a 'light touch' regime akin to pseudo self regulation.

This is not just a US issue as evidenced by UBS writing off some $40bn to date and a number of banks worldwide either arranging deeply discounted rights issues (RBS, Fortis, HBOS)or going cap in hand the the far east (Barclays, Citi etc). In effect what we are seeing is contagion.

The future is somewhat uncertain; however i do not expect a total meltdown (fingers xd). What is clear is that regulation will tighten unilaterally which will lead to more prudent principles being adopted by the financial community as a whole. We will witness further collapses and the strong becoming stronger so expect more mergers and acquisitions and don't rule out purchases of well known Banks by the Japanese who are cash rich in view of their own crisis some 10-15 years back. In effect capitalism

This may be difficult to stomach now and I do feel for those people who may lose jobs, houses etc; however I have a feeling that this episode may prove to be beneficial in the long term; providing we get a total overhaul and eradication of such unscrupulous practices.

Ps i will leave this argument to another day; however institutional and private investors didn't care too much when the stocks were rising (i.e. how they were making their profits) and what about the Auditors responsibility!?
Edited by yaggy at 04:18, 16th Sep

To: yaggyOwners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.29
Posted 16 Sep 08, 04:21
Message-id: 1.2623.30
thank you, Yaggy....see, guys, i knew he knows a lot about this stuff.

now, can we go for a latte? theyre still only $4.

To: chopchopOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.28
Posted 16 Sep 08, 04:26
Message-id: 1.2623.31
Australia will become a Communist nation soon under Chairman Rudd

To: DylanOwners Club
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.31
Posted 16 Sep 08, 04:56
Message-id: 1.2623.32
Better than the fascist, redneck backwater that Howard was creating...

To: yaggyOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.29
Posted 16 Sep 08, 05:00
Message-id: 1.2623.33

institutional and private investors didn't care too much when the stocks were rising (i.e. how they were making their profits) and what about the Auditors responsibility!?



As for the first part of that sentence, I agree completely. The only really losers are those who entered late (and the CEOs of the companies who screwed everyone, but they are losers ina different way). The rest of them had big benefits prior to their losses, so they should net off slightly ahead I think.

As for the auditors responsibility, what on earth are you one about? The auditors are responsible to declaring whether published accounts represent a true and fair view of a companies situation. There were no wholesale frauds (which it is not actually an auditors role to pick up on, yet people like to blame them), there was just a breaking point. The only thing you could ping on an auditor was their consideration of a going concern, but if they were expected to comment on the going concern in the environment that their opinion was given over the years, then it would be justified. Unless there was reason for the auditors to expect debtors to not pay, and for all intensive purposes that would involve them having a crystal ball trying to identify it, then they did nothing wrong. People just like to blame them for the mistakes i.e. Enron, where they destroyed an accounting firm, who later on it was deemed that they were not at fault. Which is nice, considering from an audit perspective if the client is giving you false documents and information that you had no way of verifying that they were, you can't do much about it.

I used to be an auditor, and have worked for Andersen, E&Y and PWC, and this mindset of the public that the Auditors should pick everything up is ludicrous. To do so would involved checking every single transaction that ever occurred, verifying it's legitimacy via third parites and then deciding that it is appropriate. You wouldn't get an audit opinion on any company for a couple of years.

Which is irrelevant for the current issue anyway, since I think the problems arose from accepted business practises, not from dodgy transactions. Auditors role isn't to run a business, it's to confirm that what the business says happened, did happen.

To: MaestroOwners Club
From: mattblackOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.32
Posted 16 Sep 08, 05:32
Message-id: 1.2623.34

Better than the fascist, redneck backwater that Howard was creating...



Hear, hear

Although my main worry at the moment is my US trip in 2 weeks time. The $AU is dropping like a stone which is not fair because it is the US's that has stuffed up.

Very selfish I know, but my spending money is fast dissappearing. I was going to do my part to help the US economy, but now I have less spending money to do itSad

Reply to: 1.2623.34
Posted 16 Sep 08, 05:34
Message-id: 1.2623.35
Why not buy your cash now? In all honesty, if I was from Oz and knew I was going on a trip, I'd have bought it earlier when it was reasonably high, but I wouldn't have got annoyed if it went a bit higher.

In current climate you take the good when you can get it.

Reply to: 1.2623.35
Posted 16 Sep 08, 05:37
Message-id: 1.2623.36

Why not buy your cash now? In all honesty, if I was from Oz and knew I was going on a trip, I'd have bought it earlier when it was reasonably high, but I wouldn't have got annoyed if it went a bit higher.



Valid point, but what you failed to comprehend is that I am a complete idiot.

Luckily I paid for most of my accom and flights when near parity, and have picked up some cash now at around the 82 mark.

Hindsight is 20/20 though.Bang head

To: mattblackOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.36
Posted 16 Sep 08, 06:33
Message-id: 1.2623.37
Hope you enjoy your trip to the US. Despite everything there really are a lot of great people and places here.

All the the talk is that AIG will be propped up by whatever means necessary since it is claimed that they pose systemic risk in case of failure. I wish there were some way to judge claims like this. The absolute lack of transparency to ordinary investors/curious people is one of the most troubling aspects of this whole crisis to me. CEOs have lied and lied and lied all the way through this and the largest financial companies in the world, which are allegedly public companies, are allowed to keep their books secret and say they are strong and have no need to raise capital days before they raise capital. Some have done it repeatedly just during the last year. All the way down we've been told "this is the bottom," "these are the last of the write-downs," "this is the last time we need to raise capital." Lies,lies,lies. And still there is no way for us mere mortals to figure out where these companies truly stand, or the world financial system for that matter.

We need transparency, and we need a whole lot more "perp walks" featuring executives in handcuffs. I hope I'm just getting caught up in the pessimism but I see no end in sight.

Even with the bailout measures credit destruction is still outpacing attempts to reinflate the economy. That appears to be the true systemic risk to me. Unlimited debt that is inflated away over time seems to be a fundamental principle of the modern global financial system, but right now the Fed is powerless to reinflate. This may come down to a question of whether we will ultimately take our deflationary medicine or if the government will reinflate by any means necessary. Given the failure of all the means thus far tried, it could take truly extreme measures to go that route.

To: Everyone
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.37
Posted 16 Sep 08, 06:48
Message-id: 1.2623.38
The effects are definitely being felt globally now.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7617976.stm

But on the bright side, it looks like it's causing a fall in commodity prices. If commodity prices remain low then that should help with inflation concerns and perhaps prevent a global recession.

I'm pessimistic though. I think we're heading for a 3-5 year global recession. Some countries will be lucky and remain unscathed, but I think the USA will be hardest hit. The USA is addicted to subsidies and trade barriers and that will make it a lot harder for them to recover. It's a bit ironic considering that USA considers itself to be the home of the free market.
Edited by hatless at 06:53, 16th Sep

Reply to: 1.2623.38
Posted 16 Sep 08, 07:05
Message-id: 1.2623.39
My company is a huge agrichem company. They are enjoying this immensely, and they don't see a decrease in food products. You may see the other commodity prices drop, but if you consider that the biggest commodity users in the world, outside of the US, happen to be countries that I don't think are really feeling it too much.

I have to admit, I don't read any newpapers from the sub continent, but they don't seem overly fussed by the issues the western world is having. In fact, I think they are enjoying it.

I say, bring back the stocks, and the rotten fruit and veges, and line up some Directors for a bit of a battering.

Reply to: 1.2623.39
Posted 16 Sep 08, 07:35
Message-id: 1.2623.40
China's growth is deaccelerating, Brazil's stock market fell 7.5% yesterday and is currently over 2% down today and India is similar. It looks bearish for commodity prices with, perhaps food being less adversley affected due to the expected shortage in world supply.

Doesn't look like a depression as bad as the 30's but noone is going to be smiling for a year or so.

Reply to: 1.2623.40
Posted 16 Sep 08, 07:39
Message-id: 1.2623.41
My CEO will be. We have an insane amount of cash and facing higher and higher profits. Apparently I am meant to like the fact that the company is doing well, of course, I also have to buy food so there isn't a big smile on my face.

Reply to: 1.2623.41
Posted 16 Sep 08, 14:33
Message-id: 1.2623.42
well, our stock market rebounded somewhat today, i think we recovered about 1/3 of yesterday's losses, so i think it's going to be sort of a 9/11 thing, where it fell so much one day, and slowly got back up to around the 1400 level on the DOW.

and the other world markets will probably follow.

there are still some major thiings happening out there w/AIG, because theyre into so many international companies. quite a bit would hinge on what happens to them i think.

definitely a buyer's market now, tho. but today's closing bell at NYSE was very encouraging.

do you really think Aus. is going to be communist, Dylan? oh my, that means gray is going to be in next season...maybe i should buy stocks in companies that sell gray fabric only.

To: chopchopOwners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.42
Posted 16 Sep 08, 18:18
Message-id: 1.2623.43
i really hate to say this, but we must have the most idiotic people in the world running the Fed. Reserve here in the U.S.

on friday, they tell the world they are NOT bailing out AIG for the 20 billion they needed, so they got rated down three points, and now they need 85 billion to bail out, so now the Fed is going to give them the money.

i was just watching Larry King, and Suzie Orman is on. She's pretty good. She said if they had just given them 20 billion on Friday, they wouldnt have gotten downrated, causing this massive panic.

what a pathetic state of mind our govt. is in....i am soooo ready to go back to Europe.

also the Fed is getting 79.9 % of AIG for the loan....does this mean we're moving towards nationalized health care.... like the UK?

how does nationalized health care work for you guys in the UK? can someone please explain.

oh btw, i dont have AIG health insurance, so im not really affected, but it would have been a huge blow to the markets if they had gone belly up.

but still, the Fed could have saved 65 B. if they had bailed them out on Friday. i really dont understand most of this, but this is sort of scary.




Edited by chopchop at 18:31, 16th Sep

To: chopchopOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.43
Posted 16 Sep 08, 19:36
Message-id: 1.2623.44
NHS here?

Basically. everyone gets free health care. end of.

If your a citizen, Naturalised, visiting from a european union country. Part of the Commonwealth and visiting. All free care. You pay squat, nadda, not a penny.

Sure sometimes you have to wait for none essential operations, and some regretfully have to wait for essential ones. And it does have its problems. like too many damn managers and not enough pay for the hard working brilliant staff on the 'ground floor' etc

I been in and out of NHS hospitals for years, and I cant complain one bit about them.

I was born in the UK, moved to Africa with my parents when I was young, and was brought up with a health insurance system. No insurance, No medical, end of story, or bring that cash to the front desk when you break your leg.

Came back to England when I was 21, and was told by my mothers family to fill in these forms, fill in those forms. go to the docs for an initial medical. WHAT YOU MEAN I DONT NEED INSURANCE? HuH.

Week later I got a cheque through the door. HUH. For what? I've not been to work yet. Ohhhh its your Giro, we pay YOU not to work. crazy isnt it.

The people in this country have no idea just how lucky they are, and yet they still complain and whine etc about the lives they live. Personally I'm lucky as hell I was diagnosed with the condition I have while in the UK and not in Africa a year earlier. No chance of ever getting insurance them. Means I cant work and would mean you dont eat either, or live in a nice house etc.

UK national health is fantastic. You get what you need and wait for what you dont need mostly.
Edited by Talisman at 19:38, 16th Sep

To: chopchopOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.43
Posted 16 Sep 08, 21:22
Message-id: 1.2623.45
I think Suzie has it wrong on this one. The real problem is the underlying bad assets and bad trades of AIG. If the rating agencies were worth a damn they would have downgraded AIG a long time ago. Irrational panic is not behind these troubles. In fact I think the market has been very calm considering the realities and unknowns. The number 20 billion came out at first on friday because that was what they were willing to fess up to. Now they've been forced to admit 80. Most likely it will still be much higher but no one will admit it unless and until they are literally forced to.

In answer to health care question, I don't think this in anyway causes a move towards national health care. Really this is the opposite. It is socializing care for the largest corporations. When times are good the profits roll in to the private owners and now that times are bad the losses are passed off to the tax payers. It really is stunning to see the largest mortgage gaurantor and now the largest insurance company nationalized. I think this without precedent in US history. It certainly represents the most robust socialism we have ever seen in this country, and wouldn't you know it, even socialism is for the rich here.

We now have two gargantuan nationalizations and the destruction of 3 of 5 biggest investment banks all during this calender year. Ominous signs.
Edited by iddi420 at 21:24, 16th Sep

To: mattblackOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.34
Posted 17 Sep 08, 00:56
Message-id: 1.2623.46


--------------------------------
Better than the fascist, redneck backwater that Howard was creating...
--------------------------------


Hear, hear

Although my main worry at the moment is my US trip in 2 weeks time. The $AU is dropping like a stone which is not fair because it is the US's that has stuffed up.

Very selfish I know, but my spending money is fast dissappearing. I was going to do my part to help the US economy, but now I have less spending money to do itSad



I bought $2000 US a few weeks back when the AUD was at 92 CentsDance

Im luv'n it

To: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.46
Posted 17 Sep 08, 02:06
Message-id: 1.2623.47
I was wondering when you would comment Dylan, because I remembered you asking about it.

From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.47
Posted 17 Sep 08, 02:28
Message-id: 1.2623.48
Waiting for it to hit around $0.75 Cents and then will sell, almost a 25% profit isnt too bad over the space of 1 month

To: DylanOwners Club
From: mattblackOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.46
Posted 17 Sep 08, 02:29
Message-id: 1.2623.49
You heading over too?

To: mattblackOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.49
Posted 17 Sep 08, 02:30
Message-id: 1.2623.50
to the US? Nah, I hate the Imperial system

To: DylanOwners Club
From: TheDoctorOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.50
Posted 17 Sep 08, 05:37
Message-id: 1.2623.51
dylan is awesome!Praise

To: TheDoctorOwners Club
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.51
Posted 17 Sep 08, 05:41
Message-id: 1.2623.52
I had to check the user name for the above post, i actually thought dylan posted it Laugh

To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.52
Posted 17 Sep 08, 10:14
Message-id: 1.2623.53
Watch out UK. I heard the British Bankers Association say today that British banks are sound. If things work the same way over there that they do here, that is a clear statement that the banks are unsound. I don't know if your business leaders are truthful or not. Here in the US though, what they say (at least during a crisis) is always closer to the opposite of the truth, so this bears close scrutiny. They also said that this is not a crisis, so I guess that may be our official confirmation that this is a crisis.

To: iddi420Owners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.53
Posted 17 Sep 08, 12:29
Message-id: 1.2623.54
Couldnt be more right there iddi. One of ours is on the brink of falling as we speak. People local talking about getting their savings out ets already. Halifax bank which is one of the big 5 'high street banks' is on the brink of collapse and bailouts being planned already.

Bank of scotland which is part of Halifax banking system is being bailed out by Lloyds bank. and Halifax main bank is being bailed by the government.

Thats my 'unresearched' version though, as I'm reading it on the surface, not really had a good look at how its working yet.

So possibly two of our big mortgage banks in serious trouble this week.

To: TalismanOwners Club
From: HenryCecilOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.54
Posted 17 Sep 08, 12:32
Message-id: 1.2623.55
If its HBOS your on about they arent collapsing or needing bailing out, their share price fell by 32% but they arent folding , actually far from it they are merging with someone else to form our biggest bank from what i hear
Edited by HenryCecil at 12:33, 17th Sep

To: iddi420Owners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.53
Posted 17 Sep 08, 14:00
Message-id: 1.2623.56

Watch out UK. I heard the British Bankers Association say today that British banks are sound.



That is definitely a football manager's vote of confidence.

To: FlameOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.52
Posted 17 Sep 08, 14:52
Message-id: 1.2623.57

I had to check the user name for the above post, i actually thought dylan posted it Laugh



Yes its called a life long plan.

Instead of trying to pickup in public forumsNyah nyah!

To: DylanOwners Club
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.57
Posted 17 Sep 08, 15:17
Message-id: 1.2623.58
Im sorry to let you down mate but im happily taken Smiley.
Youre much to immature for me anyway Nyah nyah!

From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.55
Posted 17 Sep 08, 15:25
Message-id: 1.2623.59

If its HBOS your on about they arent collapsing or needing bailing out, their share price fell by 32% but they arent folding , actually far from it they are merging with someone else to form our biggest bank from what i hear
Edited by HenryCecil at 12:33, 17th Sep



Only sort of Henry from what I can tell. PM has had his sticky fingers in there somewhere and told Lloyds to hurry up with the 'merge' asap.

Seemingly started out innocent enough, planned merge etc, but the leak of the plan caused a stock crash and uncertainty in HBOS, specilation was that the merge was due to to HBOS being in trouble. Now due to the stock crash they are, and Lloyds was rethinking their position and renegotiating the original merge plans.

Expected 'runs' on Halifax and bank of Scotland due this week. If that happends chances are that Lloyds will pull out the deal and buy up HBOS instead on a forced takeover.
All up in the air at them moment now, again due to speculations and weak position on the stock market.

To: TalismanOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.59
Posted 17 Sep 08, 16:10
Message-id: 1.2623.60
I can't speak to that particular situation since I'm not familiar with it. I can say that some of the recent mergers here are equivalent to collapse. Calling them mergers is a distortion of the situation. Bear Sterns and Merrill Lynch have been widely called mergers but were really collapses. Looks like Morgan Stanley is next.

You could say that it is better than a taxpayer bailout, however, tax payer money is still financing lots of the deals through questionable new powers being exercised by our central bank. So even the non-bailouts have a heavy bailout aspect to them.

Every American needs to be aware of the fact that we could have paid for decades of Universal Healthcare for what has been comitted to bailing out Wall Street just this year. That should be plastered on every billboard, news paper, and TV station.

To: TalismanOwners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.59
Posted 17 Sep 08, 23:39
Message-id: 1.2623.61
oh god, i was going to move to France, but now i want to move to the UK and get really really sick....

anyone know where i can get hold of some E coli, and bring it over....or do they have it in the UK?

thanks for the explanation, Tal..i had no idea the sysrem worked like that.....i knew you guys had high taxes.....but god, it seems that medical more than makes up for it.

i hope your condition gets better, too, Tal...we're all praying for you here.

Reply to: 1.2623.61
Posted 18 Sep 08, 02:35
Message-id: 1.2623.62
Chop, e-coli is so 90's. We've got MRSA for our superbug. Available in all NHS hospitals near you.

Reply to: 1.2623.62
Posted 18 Sep 08, 06:50
Message-id: 1.2623.63
RIP Bank of Scotland 1695-2008

To: chopchopOwners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.61
Posted 18 Sep 08, 06:55
Message-id: 1.2623.64

i knew you guys had high taxes.....but god, it seems that medical more than makes up for it.



Our tax rates are actually very similar to those in the USA.
Check out the links to compare:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w...me_brackets_and_tax_rates
http://en.w...pedia.org/w.../Income_tax_uk#Income_tax
Also the UK government spend less on healthcare than the USA government. Because the USA system is so incredibly inefficient it costs more to provide essential services to those with no insurance than it does for the UK to provide universal healthcare for everyone.
Edited by hatless at 06:56, 18th Sep

Reply to: 1.2623.62
Posted 18 Sep 08, 06:59
Message-id: 1.2623.65

Chop, e-coli is so 90's. We've got MRSA for our superbug. Available in all NHS hospitals near you.



MRSA is sort of 'yesterday' now really foss, 'todays' new one is c.difficile, this the new one they hiding and telling people doesnt exist etc.

To: TalismanOwners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.65
Posted 18 Sep 08, 07:02
Message-id: 1.2623.66
Ach there's always something new to frighten us with.

If you put a lot of sick people in the same place then some of them are going to die.

To: hatlessOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.66
Posted 18 Sep 08, 07:27
Message-id: 1.2623.67
Going in with a heart attack and dying of heart failure is sort of excusable. going in for overnight observation and comingout with a stomache eating super bug is sort of not.

Moms sister got MRSA while in one of the local hospitals. After they changed dressing on her leg they were actuall left on the windowsill for nearly a week. Needless to say some cleaning staff got fired over that one. MRSA infected dressings on a public windowsill in a 8 bed ward full of surgery patients. Sort of out of line and asking for trouble.

Problems with the new one is that they still not testing for it, and loads of people dying from it when all they are suspected of having is 'the runs' and sent home.

To: TalismanOwners Club
From: TK-hairboyOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.67
Posted 18 Sep 08, 07:41
Message-id: 1.2623.68
Aussies have the choice of health insurance or not, with public or private hospitals....

Personally, being left-wing to the absolute extreme, I wouldn't dream of getting health insurance. Instead the money goes into a savings fund for the kids. Much better IMHO, and still available if we had an emergency.....but then again, if you have an emergency the public system works beautifully. I've been to the local public hospital twice over the past 3 years with "serious" but not life-threatening issues, and been admitted and assigned a bed on both occasions within an hour of turning up at the hospital door.

I'm incredibly sorry for you yanks....enforced medical insurance and limited welfare = far more right-wing than I'd ever find acceptable.

From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.68
Posted 18 Sep 08, 07:59
Message-id: 1.2623.69
I think the problem with the USA healthcare system has nothing to do with it being too right-wing. The problem is that the system doesn't work and costs the US tax-payer far more than it should.

There are all sorts of different systems in place all-over the world and most of them work reasonably well at a lower cost to the tax-payer than the American system. They should just chose one - any one - and give it a try.

Concerns about 'socialising' medicine are just silly. They have 'socialised' education and postal systems and neither of them have caused the USA to become a communist state.

If socialism is a genuine concern then why does the US government continue to subsidise private industry in areas such as aviation, rail, cotton, timber and oil?
Edited by hatless at 08:10, 18th Sep

Reply to: 1.2623.68
Posted 18 Sep 08, 18:24
Message-id: 1.2623.70
Playing a little bit of sport I would never dream of not having private health insurance Hairy. I think it is more lifestyle dependent than quite as cut and dried.

I know my wife has saved many 1000's of dollars on her shoulder operations, as have I on my knees and nose (Grr!). Of course if we didn't play sport then it wuld be a whole different matter.

Reply to: 1.2623.70
Posted 18 Sep 08, 18:34
Message-id: 1.2623.71
I'm kinda extreme viewpoint tho....to me, health and education should always be provided by government. So I still wouldn't have private health cover by principle, and would be (foolishly?!) expecting public system to take care of knees shoulders and the like.

Even if it didn't quite work out right, my stubborn belief in my own ideals is so strong that I still wouldn't be paying. I guess my stubbornness is shown by this website lol - the "sensible" thing would have been to stay at work in my comfortable and well-paid government job, and never attempt this project....
Edited by TK-hairboy at 18:34, 18th Sep

From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.71
Posted 18 Sep 08, 18:50
Message-id: 1.2623.72
Shock You have 'sensible' thoughts? god forbid, never thought it was possible. I'm amazed.

Glad your 'unsensible' side won out on this occasion though or wouldnt be in this forum.

Reply to: 1.2623.71
Posted 18 Sep 08, 19:18
Message-id: 1.2623.73
See that's the pommy in you Hairy (I assume). I am happy to pay a bit extra (especially with the tax rebates) to get a better coverage, a bit like buying OC here Wink

To: Everyone
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.73
Posted 18 Sep 08, 19:53
Message-id: 1.2623.74
I work in finance in a hospital and I have private health cover.

Need i say more Laugh


To: FlameOwners Club
From: SaracenOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.74
Posted 19 Sep 08, 01:20
Message-id: 1.2623.75

I've been to the local public hospital twice over the past 3 years with "serious" but not life-threatening issues, and been admitted and assigned a bed on both occasions within an hour of turning up at the hospital door



Where I come from a 3 hour wait is usually considered quick. The exception being if the ambulance hauls your butt into the building. A 5 hour wait is not uncommon and the waiting room is very rarely crowded.
To: FlameOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.74
Posted 19 Sep 08, 02:04
Message-id: 1.2623.76
The Australian Health System is the most inefficient sector of our Australian sector. Would love too see all Hospitals privatised
To: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.76
Posted 19 Sep 08, 02:21
Message-id: 1.2623.77
Efficiency is a relative term Dylan. Next thing you know you'll be suggesting schools are inefficient and should be privatised too. The problem is that in order to create 'efficiencies' there are often other ineffective things created. If you wanted, I could give you a nice argument proving that privatisation and the idea of making profits actually creates greater inefficiencies in a market.

Be careful what you wish for, and don't believe everything that they teach you in Year 12 economics.
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.77
Posted 19 Sep 08, 02:40
Message-id: 1.2623.78
Good call there foss, thats pretty much exactly what would occur.
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.77
Posted 19 Sep 08, 02:59
Message-id: 1.2623.79

Efficiency is a relative term Dylan. Next thing you know you'll be suggesting schools are inefficient and should be privatised too. The problem is that in order to create 'efficiencies' there are often other ineffective things created. If you wanted, I could give you a nice argument proving that privatisation and the idea of making profits actually creates greater inefficiencies in a market.

Be careful what you wish for, and don't believe everything that they teach you in Year 12 economics.



You give me an industry thats had total Micro economic reform thats been inefficient.

Be the first things for me to look into when im older
To: DylanOwners Club
From: willwalk11Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.79
Posted 19 Sep 08, 03:16
Message-id: 1.2623.80
Prisons?

PS I have no idea what Micro economic reform means.
To: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.79
Posted 19 Sep 08, 03:25
Message-id: 1.2623.81
Ah, the joys of youth. Seriously Dylan, one day you'll study these things to a greater extent, learn to critically evaluate exactly what the hell is going on, do futher extensive reading and learning and not just blindly believe what you are told.

At that point you will then think back to this moment, and realise, 'Hey, that guy knew what he was talking about'.

While I don't know that much about you, I know this. In highschool I studied economics for 5 years, and accounting for 3, and I thought that I knew everything about it. I was a genius on the matter, and had no problem spouting off all that I had been told. Then I spent 6 years at university, obtaining a law degree, and a management degree, and I started learning alternative theories and arguments, and realised that that the very basic ideas and concepts that they teach you at school are nothing. I studied more indepth studies performed by well recognised economists, and I came out of that thinking that there is actualy a lot more to this than you think.

So then I started working for Andersen, then EY, admittedly as an auditor, not an economist, and you start learning about the many different businesses, how they operate, and are able to compare between different entities in the same industry, and different entities in similar industries. I had clients covering private and public organisations, so I saw a fair bit.

But even during that I realised, that there is a hell of a lot more to these ideas than you realise. So I read, a hell of a lot. There are econmists who argue both for and against concepts and ideas, and are well recognised by their peers, but completely contradict each other. It isn't as cut and dry as you seem to believe.

I am incredibly cynical of all the crap which the general public belives nowadays. I fit into the perfect criteria of someone who would vote for a right wing party, yet for some reason I find them absolutely repulsive and disgusting. The bases for their beliefs and policies are significantly flawed.

Dylan, no offence, but you are just at the very early stages of your development. If this is something that you enjoy then go and study it. You should follow something which is a passion. No doubt you follow the messiah of modern economics, Adam Smiths doctrine of a free market provides the most efficient allocation of resources. But, like the bible, the Wealth of Nations has been significantly taken out of context, misquoted and selectively used to benefit those who want to be rich. But you will learn this one day if you study it properly.

Just please, if you learn anything today, remember that what you have been told isn't ever to be taken as gospel. I was seriously exactly like you, spouting the same crap, using the same arguments. I was wrong, and if knew then what I knew now I would have been a lot quieter in my opinions I think.

As an aside, you'll also realise at the age of about 22-23, that as a teenage you were an absolute dropkick. This isn't aimed at you, it is just a general thing that I think most of us realise. A similar thing will happen in your late 20's about you in your early 20's. I am waiting to see if a similar epiphany happens in my 30's at some point abou me right now.
Edited by mod-fossunited at 03:27, 19th Sep
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.81
Posted 19 Sep 08, 03:30
Message-id: 1.2623.82
You haven't Argued my point at all..
To: DylanOwners Club
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.82
Posted 19 Sep 08, 03:38
Message-id: 1.2623.83
He seriously doesnt need to Dylan
To: FlameOwners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.83
Posted 19 Sep 08, 04:20
Message-id: 1.2623.84
There's a certain amount of truth in what Foss is saying but I hope he doesn't think he knows it all because like any (social) science there are new discoveries and theories appearing all the time.
Reply to: 1.2623.81
Posted 19 Sep 08, 04:22
Message-id: 1.2623.85

As an aside, you'll also realise at the age of about 22-23, that as a teenage you were an absolute dropkick. This isn't aimed at you, it is just a general thing that I think most of us realise. A similar thing will happen in your late 20's about you in your early 20's. I am waiting to see if a similar epiphany happens in my 30's at some point abou me right now.



You got that right. I was an absolute arsehole when I was a teenager and I wasn't much better in my twenties.

I strongly suspect that I am going to spend my whole life believing that ten years ago I was an idiot.
Reply to: 1.2623.84
Posted 19 Sep 08, 04:48
Message-id: 1.2623.86

There's a certain amount of truth in what Foss is saying but I hope he doesn't think he knows it all because like any (social) science there are new discoveries and theories appearing all the time.



Believe me, I don't think I know it all for taht very reason. I am continually learning more about things even now that I am no longer at uni. But I do think that I have learnt more about this than Dylan.

As for not arguing your point Dylan, that is because I don't see a need to. I am willing to bet that I could guess what a lot of your responses would be, and in all honesty I think that right now they are from an extremely limited viewpoint.

I don't think you have yet grasped the concept of what efficiency really is, and as a result it is very difficult for us to really have a decent argument on it.

If you want me to give you a list of really recent publications that are actually entertaining to read, generally, I don't mind. Most libraries should have them on their shelves somewhere if you don't want to buy them.
Reply to: 1.2623.86
Posted 19 Sep 08, 04:58
Message-id: 1.2623.87
If everyone wasnt sure, that was "THE FOSS" throwing down the law.
To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.87
Posted 19 Sep 08, 08:48
Message-id: 1.2623.88
Wow, do we live in interesting times. This newest round of government interventions is off the scale of anything I've ever seen or heard of. I wonder if they are averting disaster or only postponing and worsening it. Banning short selling? I find it hard to believe that short sellers are the problem here. In fact it seems more likely to me that the shorts are just helping us to find the true value of these stocks. Throwing trillions of dollars at the companies responsible for this calamity? It seems like good money after bad. We should be using the good money for productive things like infrastructure and health care not bailing out previous mal-investment.

As an aside, I'll say something about efficiency. The privatized US health system costs twice as much as a % of GDP as many countries with universal care, yet those countries have better society-wide health outcomes. That is inefficient to the extreme. Yet the private market loves it, they're making billions in profit. In fact they would love for us to keep spending more and more and creating more profits for them while continuing to have bad results for society. I don't see any efficiency anywhere, except in inflating profits. They are unbelievably efficient at that.

That doesn't even begin to address the human pain and tragedy that happens every single day under this system. As far as which is more tragic, you can take your pick.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: HenryCecilOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.88
Posted 19 Sep 08, 08:55
Message-id: 1.2623.89
It just really pees me off that the profits are privatised yet taking the brunt of the loss it gets passed on to the tax payers. And you see guys/gals walking away from a shambles with multi million pound pay offs.
Reply to: 1.2623.88
Posted 19 Sep 08, 08:59
Message-id: 1.2623.90
Yeah, I still find it amazing that the governments are bailing out the banks, yet noone sees the need to regulate the industry, and in fact says regulation is bad. Surely, this is a prime example of the banking industry being really really really buggered as a result of people not restricting them.

I agree as well, short selling really isn't the biggest problem here, it is just a problem once all the other problems come to light and the downward spiral starts.

As for the creation of more profits and inefficiency problem, couldn't agree more. As I said in one of my responsed to the big D, I could write a huge amount on the ineffectiveness of the profit mindset.
Reply to: 1.2623.89
Posted 19 Sep 08, 09:01
Message-id: 1.2623.91

It just really pees me off that the profits are privatised yet taking the brunt of the loss it gets passed on to the tax payers. And you see guys/gals walking away from a shambles with multi million pound pay offs.



I agree. I think a lot of the public seem to fail to see that after banks shafting us left right and centre for how long now, when a government bails them out it is actually joe pubic doing it. So we pay them fortunes for them to be greedy, then pay them even more because they are about as competent as a sackfull of arses.

Win win.
Reply to: 1.2623.91
Posted 19 Sep 08, 09:31
Message-id: 1.2623.92
Yes, perhaps the most glaring omission to everything going on is that there is not one word being spoken about regulation or transparency. The government (or rather the taxpayers) is now taking on the bad assets yet we still have no idea what they are. The very first step should have been the president sending out a team of 10,000 lawyer/accountants to pore over the books and find out just what the hell is going on in our financial system. Instead we are bailing them out no questions asked.

Is it really too much to ask that publicly traded financial companies have to tell the truth about what is on their books? Is it too much to ask that these companies be tightly regulated since every taxpayer is on the hook for their losses when they make a mistake?
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.92
Posted 19 Sep 08, 10:40
Message-id: 1.2623.93
It leaves a very nasty after taste, doesn't it? Part of me thinks that the Governments should just let these financial insits. collapse - it might teach them to plan for this type of thing happening again. With the safety net at the ready and held by Joe Taxpayer, they'll be at it again before long.
Looking at the bigger picture, the Gov'ts have little choice due to the impact on most other industries of this crisis. At the end of the day, it's probably cheaper to bail them out than let them collapse - I still don't like it one bit, though.
Reply to: 1.2623.93
Posted 19 Sep 08, 10:48
Message-id: 1.2623.94
I say that they use all that cash to nationalise an asset, then start buying up shares/assets. Let the vultures circle, pick the carcasses clean and start afresh. Hell, I head one of these things for significantly less of a reward if they wanted to.

I am wondering if all of these entities that survive will have to pay off the massive debt that they owe. I have a feeling that they won't.
Reply to: 1.2623.94
Posted 19 Sep 08, 11:42
Message-id: 1.2623.95
Rumors right now are about a 1.2 trillion dollar fund (courtesy of taxpayers) to buy the bad assets of the financial companies. That is in addition to nearly 1 trillion in bailouts already comitted. This is completely unprecedented and at the moment I really can't get my head around it. I think that for one, it is confirmation that a crash of historic proportions was indeed imminent. Next, I wonder if the US balance sheet can really withstand these measures or not. The stock market is reacting as though it were just discovered that each person has a machine up their ass which will print out a steady supply of $100 bills. Of course regular people don't, but the largest corporations do: It's called the United States Federal Reserve.

It looks like they've chosen the option of reinflating by any means necessary and the means are truly extreme. One would think that this may have the power to kill the dollar rally, though it seems to be holding up so far.
To: hatlessOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.85
Posted 19 Sep 08, 13:58
Message-id: 1.2623.96

You got that right. I was an absolute arsehole when I was a teenager and I wasn't much better in my twenties.

I strongly suspect that I am going to spend my whole life believing that ten years ago I was an idiot.



So nothing changes then? Smug
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.86
Posted 19 Sep 08, 18:47
Message-id: 1.2623.97


--------------------------------
There's a certain amount of truth in what Foss is saying but I hope he doesn't think he knows it all because like any (social) science there are new discoveries and theories appearing all the time.
--------------------------------


Believe me, I don't think I know it all for taht very reason. I am continually learning more about things even now that I am no longer at uni. But I do think that I have learnt more about this than Dylan.

As for not arguing your point Dylan, that is because I don't see a need to. I am willing to bet that I could guess what a lot of your responses would be, and in all honesty I think that right now they are from an extremely limited viewpoint.

I don't think you have yet grasped the concept of what efficiency really is, and as a result it is very difficult for us to really have a decent argument on it.

If you want me to give you a list of really recent publications that are actually entertaining to read, generally, I don't mind. Most libraries should have them on their shelves somewhere if you don't want to buy them.



Reading 27 Economics Textbooks that was published by 27 Professors with 27 Doctorates still does not make you have suffecient knowledge.

Greatest Economists are the ones that think outside the box, Try new and innovative ideas.

Give me 3 Problems with privatising a Large quanity of the health system
To: DylanOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.97
Posted 19 Sep 08, 18:50
Message-id: 1.2623.98
Dylan, I'd quit while your 'not quite' ahead dear.

Your a student as far as I can tell, they are experienced proffesionals who have worked in the industry. no contest.

Believe me, what you learn in school and college does NOT match up to out of class experiences, they are completely different worlds.

What you learn in a class / lecture, doesnt even touch the surface, and yet you are trying here to make out they have no idea what they are on about. Probably not a great idea to keep on the track that you are. Your going to end up getting flamed pretty unrelentingly.

old saying. Dont try teach your grandmother to suck eggs.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.98
Posted 19 Sep 08, 18:54
Message-id: 1.2623.99
Instead of arguing of the fact in who I am, Argue at the topic I have put foward.

New Saying. When In doubt, Dont throw your self at the Speakers Demographics
Edited by dylan at 18:54, 19th Sep

To: DylanOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.99
Posted 19 Sep 08, 18:56
Message-id: 1.2623.100
new saying dylan. stop trying to be a smartarse. your doing yourself no favours.

I'll be blunt, as I usually am.

Trying to make yourself look smart by making an effort to make others look stupid only makes you look like a jackass.

I wont say any more on this topic. Try going back and reading how your phrasing things and how others percieve it. Not good.
Deleted message
-
To: DylanOwners Club
From: HenryCecilOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.99
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:14
Message-id: 1.2623.102
Thats you toldLaugh
To: DylanOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.97
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:16
Message-id: 1.2623.103


Give me 3 Problems with privatising a Large quanity of the health system



Just need 3 points with a couple points of explanation?
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.100
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:19
Message-id: 1.2623.104

Trying to make yourself look smart by making an effort to make others look stupid only makes you look like a jackass.

I wont say any more on this topic. Try going back and reading how your phrasing things and how others percieve it. Not good.



Another one who cant answer a Simple question and answer to the theory of privatising the Health System?
To: DylanOwners Club
From: HenryCecilOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.104
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:24
Message-id: 1.2623.105
Smiley Was it last night you were to tired to argue Dylan? Obviously wide awake 2day arent weSmiley
To: DylanOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.104
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:27
Message-id: 1.2623.106
With the attitude your showing dylan, and your total disregard for any of the conversation that has already been discussed, i really cant see anyone making the effort to pander to your ego here.

Your making a good natured discussion into a bad tempered argument between people.

I'm not sure anyone really cares much that you studied that exact topic last week and have the answers written down in front of you. And i'm sure as hell not writing you up an exam question for you to rattle off more school textbook basics that have no grounding in the real world.

Read my last post Dylan.

(sorry mods. I'll shut up now.)
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.105
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:30
Message-id: 1.2623.107

Smiley Was it last night you were to tired to argue Dylan? Obviously wide awake 2day arent weSmiley



Still tired

All im looking for is just 3 Justifications on why the Health System should not be privatised.
Instead I get this crap
"Oooo Stop trying to boost your ego"
"Son, you've got alot to learn about economics, ive been doing it for 2 decades"
"Ooo theirs people disagreeing with you, Im going to be a sheep and do the same thing"

3 Justifications
To: DylanOwners Club
From: HenryCecilOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.107
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:32
Message-id: 1.2623.108
for it or against?
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.108
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:35
Message-id: 1.2623.109
agaisnt -.-

Edit: Why it is a bad idea by me
Edited by dylan at 19:35, 19th Sep
To: DylanOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.109
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:36
Message-id: 1.2623.110
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.110
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:39
Message-id: 1.2623.111
Cheers. I needed that for my answers.

Now I just need to find out which Track King user wrote this article?
To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.106
Posted 19 Sep 08, 19:41
Message-id: 1.2623.112
It's time to be real skeptical of privitization. The privitization freaks are the same people who have given us financial armageddon which they are now trying to avert by having the taxpayers transfer at least 2 trillion dollars to wealthy investors. And that's what the hyper-privitization push going on all over the world is about really. Transfering more wealth to those already wealthy. So you could say reason #1 is because the people who have so loudly championed the privitization and the free market have brought us to the precipice of global financial collapse and are now are crying for the government to swoop in and make everything better with the largest redistribution of wealth ever. They have come crying and broken to renounce "the free market" and beg for the government teat to nurse them back to health.

Reason #2 is the US healthcare system.

Reason #3 is Blackwater.

Reasons 2 and 3 I think point towards the reasonable limits of the private sector. The lessons seem quite obvious at this point, I think, if only we will heed them.
To: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.97
Posted 20 Sep 08, 10:46
Message-id: 1.2623.113

Reading 27 Economics Textbooks that was published by 27 Professors with 27 Doctorates still does not make you have suffecient knowledge.



Because I can't be arsed arguing this with you dylan, I'll point out that you can read through that very part that i wrote that you decided to quote.

I do believe that I distinctly said that I am continually learning, and never said that I have sufficient knowledge, at least not to proclaim myself to be an expert on the matter.

However, I'll reiterate, I know more about this that you. Based on previous things I have seen Iddi write, I'll put money on him knowing more about this than you.

You were making a whole bunch of general statements that pretty much said that privatisation prevents inefficiencies. I have an issue with this idea, because this would require a very limited view on what you deem to be an efficiency. You could take it to a process level, an entity level, a societal level, hell you could pretty much look at it from any aspect you want. The key part of this concept is that an efficiency requirement for one area, might be completely redundant for another.

But what would I know, all I have done is read from 27 professors with 27 doctorates. Of course, last time I looked, a doctorate in most countries confers upon you the title of a Doctor, not a Professor, and depending where you come from, the idea of a Professor has a wide variety of applications, not necessarily requiring a doctorate, or something of a similar nature, to have been undertaken. But again, I am sure your extensive knowledge base would already know that.
To: chopchopOwners Club
From: GaalaaOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.24
Posted 20 Sep 08, 11:26
Message-id: 1.2623.114
don't be led by the nose, by what every one else say's.........do your research and then come to your conclusions...Thinking
Edited by Gaalaa at 11:27, 20th Sep
To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.114
Posted 20 Sep 08, 12:26
Message-id: 1.2623.115
Here is a quote from a piece written by John McCain:

"Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."

According to McCain, adopting an even more free market approach to healthcare, as was done in banking, will cause the healthcare sector to perform as well as the financial sector!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nuff said.

I came across this on Paul Krugman's blog to give credit where credit is due.

BTW in case anyone missed it, it has been publicly revealed that Ben Bernanke briefed Congress on Thursday night and informed them that we were days away from complete global financial meltdown.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.115
Posted 20 Sep 08, 16:21
Message-id: 1.2623.116

Here is a quote from a piece written by John McCain:

"Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."

According to McCain, adopting an even more free market approach to healthcare, as was done in banking, will cause the healthcare sector to perform as well as the financial sector!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nuff said.

I came across this on Paul Krugman's blog to give credit where credit is due.

BTW in case anyone missed it, it has been publicly revealed that Ben Bernanke briefed Congress on Thursday night and informed them that we were days away from complete global financial meltdown.



John McCain
Laugh
Laugh
Laugh

your not taking on what he says are you?
To: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.116
Posted 20 Sep 08, 16:25
Message-id: 1.2623.117
I'm torn between who to believe more, Mccain or Palin. Both of them seem to offer such encouraging insights on how to be a complete and utter muppet.
To: DylanOwners Club
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.111
Posted 20 Sep 08, 22:54
Message-id: 1.2623.118
Another brainwashed product of the pro-capitalist Australian education system? You need to look past the ideology and think about who's pulling the strings...
To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.118
Posted 29 Sep 08, 22:05
Message-id: 1.2623.119
Wall Street: "Bailout?"

American Citizens: "Learn to swim."

In one of the more stunning developments to come down the pike in some time the US government responded to its citizens by rejecting the bailout. Many outlets have tried to pin the failure on this or that political squabble but you can't ignore the fact that almost every congressperson that vote against is in a district where thier seat is not assured. There was a massive citizen outpouring that stopped it, actual democracy in action. I've spent the last week fighting it myself and it is rather thrilling to have something go right for once with the government.

Of course it looks like they are going to try this turkey again this week so I urge all US citizens that read this to contact your Senators and Representative. Call, email, and fax. It really can work if you put enough pressure on them.

Don't listen to fearmongering. They say we will have recession if we don't do the bailout. We are already in recession and it is going to get worse bailout or no. The bailout will simply flush money down a hole that could be used for productive investment. They will spend over a trillion dollars and not create 1 job--puhlease. It's time to boo these clowns off the stage and demand some real leadership. Torpedo this plan and build a new one from the ground up that focuses on the people. We cannot have economic recovery without good jobs and decent incomes. Throwing money at Wall Street's toxic mess does not help.
Reply to: 1.2623.119
Posted 30 Sep 08, 05:05
Message-id: 1.2623.120
They will save jobs, in the banking industry...

I agree though, it is fantastic that this happened just before an election, and they need to listen to the people instead fo shafting them.

What I would like to see is the US government use that same money that they have identified to lend to people who want to build things, and work their way out of the infrastructure. Imagine if that cash was used to create things that created jobs for people. That't be useful, and brilliant.
Reply to: 1.2623.120
Posted 30 Sep 08, 07:07
Message-id: 1.2623.121
What I dont think you lot are taking into account is how your lot rejecting that is affecting other countries economies.

As your economy works slighly more diversified than ours, you have the manufacturing industry running in tandem with your banking. we dont. Whatever happens in our banking system affects the main streets within a few days. not weeks as in USA.

Each time the US cocks up and has another banking crisis, its other countries that pay for the instablility of it.

go ahead and have your mini revolutions, dont mind the rest of us that get to pay the price for it. Already some of the economies worldwide are starting to crash as again the idiot American congress decided to play politics instead of considering how their decisions affect others.


The uk had its worst opening at the stock market for SIXTY YEARS this morning. And doesnt look like recouping fast.

Edited by Talisman at 07:10, 30th Sep
Reply to: 1.2623.121
Posted 30 Sep 08, 07:45
Message-id: 1.2623.122
Meh, as much as it is punishing me with the pound making the Zimbabwean dollar look attractive, I can only laugh. It's a giant wake up call to the rest of the world that perhaps holding tightly to the US as much as possible isn't the best idea. I agree talisman, the rest of the world suffers as a result of this, and we all have to pay the price, but would that be so if people didn't think that blindly following them was a great idea? Seems unlikely.

While they cocked up, it is our fault for doing what they want and ask. To use a car crash analogy, if a car suddenly brakes, and the car behind it rear ends them, if the third one back does the same, perhaps he shouldn't have been following so closely either.
Edited by mod-fossunited at 07:51, 30th Sep
Reply to: 1.2623.122
Posted 30 Sep 08, 10:17
Message-id: 1.2623.123
Yeah, sorry (sincerely) to rest of the world but this is necessary. There is quite a bit of "shoot the messenger" going around. The problems are very real but people are blaming the factors that have exposed the problems instead of the cause of the problems. I think that in the long run the rest of the world will benefit far more from having the US government be more responsive to its citizens than if this problem is papered over against our wishes.

Furthermore it is quite likely that the problems cannot be papered over and that money spent on the bailout will be flat out wasted. At best it will temporarily prop up a system that is rotten to the core and lead to a larger meltdown later. The most simple possible statement of the problem is, I think, that there is more debt than can possibly be repaid. There are over $500 trillion of unregulated derivatives that these criminals have been trading. At some point the debt must be destroyed. Even the gigantic US balance sheet cannot absorb all the problems. Even to try squanders precious resources that could be put to productive work.

We need health care, education, infrastructure, and good jobs. Those things drive real and sustainable economic activity. We have lost a decade economically here in the US. We exported much of our productive capacity and tried to replace it by selling houses back and forth to each other and figuring out the best way to install $10,000 granite countertops. Turns out that is not a sustainable economy. We must reverse course, not waste money propping up a broken system.

The last bargaining chips they have for the bailout are that the stock market will drop and that there will be a recession. People need to realize that those things will happen anyway, so let's grit our teeth and bear it, and push for the reforms we really need. The economic numbers that the government puts out are so badly cooked that they are meaningless. We already have a recession and real unemployment is ]10%. Much of the earnings in the stock market in the last 10 years are illusory. They are threatening us with things that have already come to pass.
Reply to: 1.2623.122
Posted 30 Sep 08, 10:26
Message-id: 1.2623.124
Its not really possible to split the global economies though foss. Stock markets run on global banking, so doesnt really matter which of the economies crash, it will inevitably affect them all.

Cross continent ownership affects us all in one way or another, case in point is that HBOS affair affecting the australian banks. as they were partly owned by the british bank.

Same goes here, everyone got their fingers in each others pots, and unless that USA banking is shored up fast its the rest of us that will take the flak for them screwing up on the sub-prime markets.

Once again the USA nose dives into something and other economies suffer while they sit pretty, yes they will bail them out, but if they had done that weeks ago instead of etting things get as bad as they are this wouldnt be such a huge issue now.

Already today prices have already gone up in our local shops. And thats just hours after the stock markets opened this morning.

America fabricates 'evidence' to go to war to boost their munitions profiteering, and the rest of us has to sit back while the oil prices pay for their arrogance again.

America screws up on their banking, again their arrogance in not taking into account how it affects global markets will leave the rest of us with the backlash while their fatcats rake in the profits later from their own recovering markets while ours will take a decade to recover again.

Its about time those Americans stopped thinking of themselves all the time and their profit margins and actually consider that others live on this world also, and thier idiotic politics and profiteering at others expence, leaving those that try get on with their lives in the mire once again.


To: Everyone
From: MaestroOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.124
Posted 30 Sep 08, 10:31
Message-id: 1.2623.125
Is Dubya now officially the worst US president ever?
To: MaestroOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.125
Posted 30 Sep 08, 10:33
Message-id: 1.2623.126
You mean the one with his fathers hand firmly up his backside? Puppet president with a puppet master.

The only reason there was even an iraq war was that he had to go finish what his father started. Daddy probably found the fabricated evidence for them.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.126
Posted 30 Sep 08, 11:11
Message-id: 1.2623.127
Whether to try to start bailing out the banks in the US or not? This is a very difficult question to answer and both sides have good arguments. I have to agree that much of the damage is already done - the 700 billion dollar rescue package only represents around 5% of US GDP and so, when looked at it like that is not a huge amount of money, relativley speaking.

I am starting to think that the package should not be approved despite the likely knock on effects to other economies and other sectors of the US economy. Surely, looking at the long term, the arrogance of these financial market God-fathers will reach new heights if the safety net is set up under them and can only lead to the same mistakes happening again in the future.

Why should all Americans pay when things go wrong, but only the special few gain when things go well (massive profits)? Why should the Government intervene here and not intervene to to help a citizen with an unpayable credit card debt? Think about it - perhaps it's a question of morals and doing the right thing than money (for once).
To: nickbeteOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.127
Posted 30 Sep 08, 11:32
Message-id: 1.2623.128
I think its less of a question of morals and more one of peoples livelihoods on the line here.

One persons credit card bill wont affect global economies and turn countries inside out. And yes there are already safety nets in place for them. Its called debt managment systems.

Sorry but I resent the fact that we wont be able to afford to heat our home this winter because the American economic sector decides to screw people over once again and the politicians will be nice and warm in their penthouses while I'm sat here freezing with a blanket round me once again.

So what if they have to shore up the economy, it wont be the first time a country has had to do it, and it definatly wont be the last. In the meantime I'd like to think that another few thousand pensioners and disabled in this country wont die from freezing to death this winter not being able to afford to put the heater on.

I really dont care about the USA moral stance on their bankers when it directly affects me thousands of miles away.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.126
Posted 30 Sep 08, 11:32
Message-id: 1.2623.129

You mean the one with his fathers hand firmly up his backside? Puppet president with a puppet master.

The only reason there was even an iraq war was that he had to go finish what his father started. Daddy probably found the fabricated evidence for them.



I honestly don't think this is the case. Bush the Greater was far, far more competent a president than Bush the Lesser. I think the elder may actually be somewhat ashamed. Yeah they are father and son and have all the same dirty money connections and all that. Look at the differences though. Bush the Greater was never a true believer in supply-side economics and even consented to raise taxes when he realized it was absolutely necessary. And it is true that he fought a war to protect oil supplies, but he did it fast, cheap, with almost no casualties, and with an exit plan. He declined to invade Iraq because he knew what a disaster it would be. American public opinion favored invading Iraq to remove Saddam at that time and elder Bush paid a price politically for not doing it.

Now, that pretty much exhausts every good thing there is to say about him. Still, it seems plenty to make him a much better president than his son and unlikely to be one of those pulling the strings behind the scenes.

Just my take though.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.128
Posted 30 Sep 08, 11:37
Message-id: 1.2623.130
It is the same here though, Talisman. We too cannot afford to heat our homes. The true solution is for us to regain control of our country. The bailout is contrary to that and will probably not work anyway.


Edit: On the actual issue of heating homes, the global recession will bring energy prices down. Trying to reinflate the broken system, if successful, will send energy prices soaring again.
Edited by iddi420 at 12:39, 30th Sep
Reply to: 1.2623.124
Posted 30 Sep 08, 11:52
Message-id: 1.2623.131

Its not really possible to split the global economies though foss. Stock markets run on global banking, so doesnt really matter which of the economies crash, it will inevitably affect them all.



I agree, but I am not jsut talking about banking. basically, countries do what america tells them too, and if they don't they get threatened. Most countries used to control business to a lesser extent, but the US didn't and told everyone else that it was bad. So we copied them.

They go into war and say to the rest you are either with us or against us. So they go and help (but not so much any more, and then look at what happens to them). NZ wouldn't allow some kind of strange Nuclear trade thing with India, so the PM gets a call from Dubya which apparently threatened her to agree. Prick.

WTO, they did well there getting their fingers in the pie. Kyoto protocol, who needs to save the planet when we can make money at it's expense - enough to buy a new planet.

Basically, everything that is crap in society is due to the US and religion (in some cases both) yet we still have to put up with the 'We're america and we are the greatest' brigade.

For years I've been wishing that every other country would just say to America, screw you, we don't need you, and trade with each other and ignore them. Lets see how their protectionist tarriffs work when nobody actually wants to sell them things. Lets see if the middle east stops selling them oil what would happen. they can't invade the whole world.

But they didn't. Instead, they did what america said, and look where we ended up. I actually feel relief at this massive global recession. My workmates tell me not to joke and laugh about it, but I have been waiting so long to be proved right. Unsustainable policies were allowed, and eventually they came and bit them on the bum. Sure, the rest of us are suffering too, but perhaps now they'll learn their lessons.

Big winners - russia and China. Hands down. Watch as russia take back a few of their old countries over the next 3-4 years. Hitler did exactly the same thing, waited until the other major powers were weak and then took things, knowing that they would just give up.

What annoys me so much is that online, most clever people in the US have known it is a problem for a long time, but the muppets who struggle to use their opposable thumbs correctly elect an absolute idiot in based on policies such as abortion and gun rights. Sure, i admit that they might not understand deeper social-economic policy, but I think my 4yo probably realises that an imaginary man and the ability to own a loud stick are not that important in the grand scheme of things.
Reply to: 1.2623.131
Posted 30 Sep 08, 12:47
Message-id: 1.2623.132

What annoys me so much is that online, most clever people in the US have known it is a problem for a long time, but the muppets who struggle to use their opposable thumbs correctly elect an absolute idiot in based on policies such as abortion and gun rights.



Foss, did you ever see the episode of South Park where Cartman travels back in time to see what the founding fathers would think of the Iraq War? He discovers that the founding principle of the US is: "we'll just say one thing, and do another."
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.132
Posted 30 Sep 08, 18:39
Message-id: 1.2623.133
Oh man.... They are going to revive the bailout in the Senate tomorrow. And get this, they have added deficit financed tax cuts to entice more Republicans to vote for it. What on earth is wrong with these people? No wonder they can't solve the financial crisis, they don't understand finance at all.

Let me say again that if you are a US citizen please call and email your 2 Senators and 1 Representative as much as you can tonight and tomorrow. You can find them at senate.gov and house.gov. Make it clear that you will not only vote against them, but work for their opponent's campaign if they allow the Bush administration to loot the Treasury on the way out of office. Kill the Paulson Plan. Start over with something that makes sense and is accountable to tax payers.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: GaalaaOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.133
Posted 30 Sep 08, 19:39
Message-id: 1.2623.134
Booooo!Bang headDunce
To: GaalaaOwners Club
From: RickiOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.134
Posted 30 Sep 08, 20:07
Message-id: 1.2623.135
Sooner the better - this is playing havoc with my Super.
To: RickiOwners Club
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.135
Posted 30 Sep 08, 20:25
Message-id: 1.2623.136
DITTO

Now spewing i changed from balanced to high grow last year Sad
To: FlameOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.136
Posted 30 Sep 08, 21:20
Message-id: 1.2623.137
My brothers morgage is due for renewal next month, 4 young kids in the house and chances are his business will crash on this one also. not looking good.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.137
Posted 01 Oct 08, 21:27
Message-id: 1.2623.138
Well, bailout on. It passed the Senate easily. One of my Senators voted against it anyway. Looks like it will pass the House this time around too. Since it is happening let us at least hope that it does some good. I fear it will amount to little except money wasted that could have been put to productive use. There is no way to avert the recession, it has already arrived.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: RickiOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.138
Posted 02 Oct 08, 02:18
Message-id: 1.2623.139
I haven't been following it closely but if I understand it correctly what is happening is that your government are buying the banks debts. That may yet prove to be a good investment.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.138
Posted 02 Oct 08, 07:37
Message-id: 1.2623.140
I think its more to avoid a full blow depression more than a recession iddi.

Buying up the bank debts, stabalising the economy somewhat and getting things back on track will in the long run make those buy-ups profitable when either collected on or sold back to the banks at a later date.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.140
Posted 02 Oct 08, 10:22
Message-id: 1.2623.141
That's what they say, but 2 weeks ago they said the fundamentals of the economy are strong.

The people who have been warning of this economic collapse for more than a year say this is a waste of money. At this point I think we have to give more credence to the people who successfully forecast our current predicament. Sure we could choose to believe the people who gave us the Iraq War, Patriot Act, and the current economic crisis. But given their track record I'm not buying.

In fact, their plan cannot work unless they overpay for the "assets." If they pay market value nothing changes. So we are pretty much gauranteed a loss. If it fends off full blown depression I suppose it will be worth it. There is no gaurantee of that however. In fact I'm begining to suspect that Congress knows we are likely to experience it anyway and are voting for this measure so that when it happens they can't be blamed for causing it by not voting for the bailout. I mean what constitutes a depression exactly? The government economic numbers are so cooked that they say we are not even in recession right now. I call BS. We have been in recession for at least 3 quarters now. Real unemployment is greater than 10%. Incomes for the middle class and lower have been declining for years. We are now, I think, clearly on the back side of peak credit. Lending will never again (or at least until everyone who lives through this is dead) be as loose as the last decade. There are $500 trillion (trillion not billion) in unregulated derivatives floating around. Even the US balance sheet is powerless against a number like $500 trillion.

For the record I still oppose the bailout and it wouldn't hurt to bang your congress critter's cage a little before the house vote if you are a US citzen opposed to wasting $700 billion. Everyone in the House of Representatives is up for reelection so it may still be possible to scare them straight. The house.gov website is still crashing intermittently so it looks like the grassroots have not given up yet.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.141
Posted 04 Oct 08, 00:09
Message-id: 1.2623.142
Well, the bailout is a done deal. Now all the firms on Wall Street are lining up to be asset managers for the program. Lovely isn't it? At least they will have nice secure new streams of income to tide them over during the recession.

The stock market made new lows on the passage. In fact, we closed lower than when the bailout was rejected. I'm putting an 860 target on the S&P 500. Closed at 1099 today. Don't invest on that of course, it is a prediction for entertainment purposes only.
Reply to: 1.2623.142
Posted 05 Oct 08, 10:03
Message-id: 1.2623.143
Lol - I was in prague and the only thing in english to watch was the Biden/Palin debate (I use that 'in english' part liberally) and then they cut to the big vote.

I still say it would have made better sense to reloan the people the cash at a more reasonable rate, using that same cash, but watching all the investment banks crumble.

I would have forced the owners to sell, then relend them their house at the lower value, and laugh my butt off.

Oh, and then apply retrospective laws to take all the cash back.

These hidden derivatives are the most interesting though, because in theory for one person to gain, another must lose. So somewhere, if everyone is losing, someone else is making some insane gains.
Reply to: 1.2623.143
Posted 05 Oct 08, 15:22
Message-id: 1.2623.144

because in theory for one person to gain, another must lose. So somewhere, if everyone is losing, someone else is making some insane gains.



Not necessarily. Say for example that I have a piece of paper that I value at £100k (eg Adam Smith's autograph, a rare banknote or a certificate of deposit) and a lot of experts agree that that is a fair valuation. I can then list that piece of paper as an asset worth £100k on my balance sheet.

If the market in that particular piece of paper then collapses (maybe Adam Smith becomes unfashionable) I might only be able to value that piece of paper at £1k on my next balance sheet. My Profit and Loss account would then show that I have made a £99k loss. Nobody has gained or lost any actual cash but my net worth has fallen.

This might seem irrelevant but it does have real life implications. If I used that piece of paper as security for a £50k business overdraft, then the bank is going to get very nervous and may cancel my overdraft facility. That could result in business closure and unemployment for me and any staff.
Edited by hatless at 15:26, 05th Oct
Reply to: 1.2623.144
Posted 06 Oct 08, 02:07
Message-id: 1.2623.145
Hmmmm... I guess. I guess the issue I have is treating the complex derivatives from the basic ones such as options or swaps. I assume that since there still needs to either be a trade or a payout from one party to another, then there has to be a winner and a loser. But thinking about it now, this doesn't take into account off balance sheet transactions, which would see someone hiding a really bad one, but their balance sheet looking fine.

Even then though, that means someone elses balance sheet is likely to be worse than it actually is isn't it?
Reply to: 1.2623.143
Posted 06 Oct 08, 08:29
Message-id: 1.2623.146

These hidden derivatives are the most interesting though, because in theory for one person to gain, another must lose. So somewhere, if everyone is losing, someone else is making some insane gains.



I think this is true of the derivatives. However, the problem seems to be that the losers of these bets can't pay off, since as unregulated securities no one forced any capital requirements relative to the bets. Trillions and trillions in bets with no money held back to cover the potential losses. It is especially infuriating that these are obligations made up out of thin air for no reason other than to allow unregulated gambling.

It needs to be better reported that the person most responsible for this is Phil Gramm, co-chair of the McCain campaign and a likely choice for treasury secrectary in a McCain administration. He slipped unregulated derivatives into a spending bill when he was in congress. He's the same guy who said America has become a nation of whiners, and that we are experiencing only a mental recession. He also was the person most responsible for deregulating the energy trading market which allowed the Enron fiasco. And, oh yeah, his wife was on the board of Enron at the time.
Reply to: 1.2623.146
Posted 06 Oct 08, 10:22
Message-id: 1.2623.147
Ah, of course. that is where the everyone is a loser comes from. Sorry, I am such an idiot today.

As for the guy responsible. *start sarcasm mode: really? I didn't expect that. I would have thought that a guy backing the republican nomination would have been cleaner than clean.
Reply to: 1.2623.147
Posted 06 Oct 08, 12:58
Message-id: 1.2623.148
that was a pretty good show last night on sixty minutes regarding the shadow market.

how they insured buyers of bad debts without calling it insurance....they called it swaps, to avoid regulation, which would have meant they would have had to set aside money to make good on these "swaps" transactions.

it was pretty enlightening and explained a great deal to me.....did anyone see the dow plunge today? there is no faith at all in the market anymore, after that show aired......im glad i got out in time.....tho the different currencies i now hold may indeed be only good for starting fires in the fire place someday.
Reply to: 1.2623.148
Posted 06 Oct 08, 14:17
Message-id: 1.2623.149
I think anyone with a bit of common sense would expect that bail out to cause that. They just sold off america to the highest bidder, which is hilarious for the rest of us to watch. When you can't pay your mortgage, the bank takes possession of your house. What happens when your country can't pay it's debts? Actually, that probably depends if you are from Africa or some asian countries, where the answer is that people will protest for you and set up charity concerts, but I don't think that will happen here.

I love how Gordon brown backed the idea, like he knows what is going on. All he does know is that is someone else forks out the cash, he doesn't have to. About the only clever thing he has done since this time last year.


From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.149
Posted 06 Oct 08, 17:26
Message-id: 1.2623.150
Well Foss, it gets a bit tricky on the issue of countries defaulting, as I'm sure you know. The current structure of the world financial system still depends on the US not defaulting, I think. The fact that the dollar continues to strengthen and Treasuries are so demanded as to yield almost nothing tells the story. The financual markets still believe that if the US isn't safe, nothing is safe. Even the bailout passage hasn't threatened the dollar yet and it sure seemed reasonable to think that it might. If they do manage to debase the dollar, it might mean the end of the financial world as we know it, at least that is what the markets seem like they might be saying.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.150
Posted 06 Oct 08, 17:37
Message-id: 1.2623.151
Russian stock market down 20% today, Brazil down 15 % (suspended twice). USD1 was worth 2.05 Brazillian Reais this am and now it's 2.20 - wow, wow, this is crazy!!!!
Reply to: 1.2623.151
Posted 07 Oct 08, 00:44
Message-id: 1.2623.152
well Australia has just preceded the WORLD today by slashing interest rates by a full 1%. The market rose by 1.7% in reaction. After Wall Streets massive dip last night. Unprecedented? no but a massive boost to Australian consumer confidence. The Banks! will they pass on the full 1%? no looks like about .8% passed on. But whilst I believe they should, their astute management and general lending practices has seen our banks solid as a rock. Billion dollar profits per year has seen our big 4 banks 4 of only 18 banks in the world with a AA + or better credit rating. Just watch the rest of the world now deposit there hard earned with our banks making them bigger and stronger.
Reply to: 1.2623.152
Posted 07 Oct 08, 01:01
Message-id: 1.2623.153
I don't think so outlandish....
Reply to: 1.2623.152
Posted 07 Oct 08, 01:11
Message-id: 1.2623.154
Correct me if I am wrong - but didn't NAB write down $3B or $4B of debt in the US mortgage market a few years ago? That might be why they didn't get bitten this time around.
Reply to: 1.2623.152
Posted 07 Oct 08, 01:26
Message-id: 1.2623.155

well Australia has just preceded the WORLD today by slashing interest rates by a full 1%.



You state that like they are the greatest thing in the world for doing so. Don't forget, Australia and New zealand has some of the highest interest rates in the developed world, and Australia has been increasing them by 25 basis points a quarter recently. If anything, this is just correcting a cockup.

But whilst I believe they should, their astute management and general lending practices has seen our banks solid as a rock. Billion dollar profits per year has seen our big 4 banks 4 of only 18 banks in the world with a AA + or better credit rating. Just watch the rest of the world now deposit there hard earned with our banks making them bigger and stronger.



Puh-lease - the Australian banks have made their money by shafting the general public left right and centre for the past 10 years, with a government that was unwilling to stop them. NZ is exactly the same, except you guys own our banks. Australia and NZ have some of the most excessive levels of 'service fees' in the world, which bolster the coffers of the banks. If you call that astute management you are absolutely dreaming. It is corporate theft which nobody wants to regulate against, moreso now because it would lead to the collapse of a couple of them, because they quite enjoy taking the 30% more tax off them.

As for lending, they have followed exactly the same principles as every other country, allowing people to overextend themselves as much as the next country. You seem to think that making your banks bigger and stronger is a good thing. Give them more power and you will get shafted more.

Unless of course you are one of the key shareholders, or in upper management, but I am going to take a calculated guess and say that you are not. In which case, you will pay even more in the long run.
Reply to: 1.2623.152
Posted 07 Oct 08, 05:53
Message-id: 1.2623.156

Billion dollar profits per year has seen our big 4 banks 4 of only 18 banks in the world with a AA + or better credit rating. Just watch the rest of the world now deposit there hard earned with our banks making them bigger and stronger.



Are you sure it isn't just that yours haven't blown up yet? I must admit that I really don't know Australian banks very well, so I don't know. We will find out shortly.

There is talk of interest rate cuts all over the world and that is part of the strength in the dollar. One line of thinking is that the US already got our rate cuts out of the way with the dramatic cuts of the last year and the rest of the world will now follow suit, thus hurting their currencies and supporting the dollar. Now there is talk of more cuts here. It would be pointless now, since there really are no liquidity problems. The issue is solvency. Central banks can pump cash into banks with both fists and it won't help, there just are not very many credit worthy people and institutions who want to borrow. The system is proving very resistant to reinflation at the moment.

Perhaps if we all recite the central bank mantra together: "To credit--the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems."
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.156
Posted 08 Oct 08, 06:59
Message-id: 1.2623.157
no one will be taking either of my properties, foss, since they're both paid for.....unless of course, i cant pay my taxes, but i really dont foresee that ever happening.

i cant give this house away here in Louisiana, try tho i might.
To: chopchopOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.157
Posted 08 Oct 08, 08:25
Message-id: 1.2623.158
I'm in the house buying process. Very frustrating dealing with banks right now. Glad I'm not a seller though, that's for sure.

Well, we got our coordinated interest rate cut. Half a point for everyone. As I said in a previous post though, I doubt it will change the picture at all. In fact, it seems to be tough getting even a short term rally going and I have rarely seen a market so ready for a rally. I'm keeping my 860 S&P 500 target in place, but would expect a rally beforehand. If we crash straight to it...well, I don't know what, but it would be pretty shocking.
Reply to: 1.2623.158
Posted 08 Oct 08, 08:36
Message-id: 1.2623.159
It's bizarre, it appears as though I finally have something to thank Australia for. For some unknown reason, the NZD to the GBP has finally depreciated, technically making me a whole lot richer suddenly. The only thing I can attribute it to is australia's 100 basis point drop, which they anticipate that we will copy. Which basically means that the 25 basis point over 4 quarters plan that they had may become all in one.

Either way, my net worth is suddenly about 8-10% higher. Which makes me worth about $100 right now. Lovely.
Reply to: 1.2623.159
Posted 08 Oct 08, 12:33
Message-id: 1.2623.160
10%??? Here, before the crisis, you could buy R$1,56 with 1 USD, today you can buy R$2,45!!! An fall in value of the real of about 57% in a couple of weeks!!!!!
Reply to: 1.2623.160
Posted 08 Oct 08, 14:20
Message-id: 1.2623.161
I'm comparing it to the pound, which has been the only currency to weaken against the NZD until a few days ago. So, while my worth if I was staying here in the long term hasn't really changed, because I plan to go back home within 2 years it now has.

that change you have there, is either really bad, or really good, depending on your circumstances.
To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.161
Posted 09 Oct 08, 13:29
Message-id: 1.2623.162
Geez, another stock crash today. When I made that 860 call I really didn't think it would happen this week. I thought we'd rally for a month or two and then resume down, then I could drag up my quote and brag about it. If we don't get the breathlessly awaited bounce, 860 is an easy target tomorrow. This is really starting to look like panic. The plus is that panics often breed nice counter-rallies, but where the heck is our counter-rally?
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.162
Posted 09 Oct 08, 15:39
Message-id: 1.2623.163
I fear any counter rally could be dampened by this talk of a world recession on the way. The volatilty in the stock market and USD exchange rate her in Brasil just now is astonishing.
The reporter on TV at the Stock Exchange today was telling us how the dollar had plummeted today to close at R$2.17 when you could clearly see on the wall graphs behing her that it was now at 2,39 - all that change in 40 minutes or so!!

Lula is being arrogant as usual saying that Brasil will be ok - wouldn't be the first time he got it totally wrong.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.162
Posted 09 Oct 08, 15:51
Message-id: 1.2623.164
it's not that the US government has lost faith in Wall Street....it's that Wall Street has lost faith in the U.S. govt.

the govt. said "Come on, come on, pass this bill, we need 700 billion NOW to bail 'em out..." after the bill failed the first time.

So now the bill has passed, and Washington still hasn't handed out a dime...so Wall Street is getting everything they can out of the market, and theyre doing exactly what i already did....moving the money to Europe......

there will be no bottom in this U]S] market. we're headiing for a crash....and the reason for that is our two choices for presidents.

one is political moron, and the other is a political child.

better pack your rags, cash out, and send your money to credit suisse, America.

or you'll be standing in breadlines....and forget about those social security and disability checks....because after wall street crashes, so will the government.

To: chopchopOwners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.164
Posted 09 Oct 08, 17:19
Message-id: 1.2623.165
I hope you´re wrong Chops!

one is political moron, and the other is a political child.



You might be right here too but either is better than Bush. That man is a disgrace to humanity, never mind a disgrace to the US.
To: nickbeteOwners Club
From: r13greenOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.165
Posted 09 Oct 08, 19:11
Message-id: 1.2623.166
/sigh.

My parents lost $20k just today 'cuz of the market. And that's prob'ly a drop in the bucket compared to everyone else...our area's been kinda "recession-proof" (or so everyone around here's been saying), but now...who knows. It's scary
To: Everyone
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.166
Posted 09 Oct 08, 20:44
Message-id: 1.2623.167
I'm not calling for panic personally. It's going to be a pretty steep recession (where I live it already is), but life will go on and there will be another "good" economy, I think. I mean, there's no gaurantees, but things have always recovered before, and they always will until they don't. We've lived the greatest credit bubble of all time and there are good things about unwinding it. Going to sting a bit though.

On the politcal side, I think it is important to vote dem this time. I'm not a dem, I've never voted dem before except the last mid-term elections. The repubs have established a very powerful political machine that is now corrupt to the core. That machine must be destroyed. Even if you like what they used to stand for, they need to be soundly defeated to force them to rebuild with some fresh ideas and less corrupted pols.

Plus, there's the fact that they got 6 years of controling the legislative and exucutive branches and managed to break the whole damn world in that short span.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.167
Posted 09 Oct 08, 20:49
Message-id: 1.2623.168
Its been 5 posts and Foss has not replied yet...

Where is he?
To: DylanOwners Club
From: kennedyaOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.168
Posted 09 Oct 08, 20:58
Message-id: 1.2623.169
Shock
To: kennedyaOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.169
Posted 09 Oct 08, 21:17
Message-id: 1.2623.170
Watch out Australia. I just heard a bank official saying the Australian banks are sound. So far that has been a reliable predictor of impending collapse. Perhaps Aussie bankers aren't lying sacks of.... like their counterparts around the world?

Get this, I just heard that President Bush is planning an address to reassure the country.Bang head That is likely to make things worse, I'm surprised they don't realize that by now. They have come out and lied and said everything is fine all the way down. People take them as a contrary indicator now.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.170
Posted 09 Oct 08, 21:47
Message-id: 1.2623.171
Well, Bush has been a tragedy for the not only the US but for the entire world as well.....but...

HERE'S THE GOOD NEWS FOR AMERICAN TRACK KING CUSTOMERS SO PAY ATTENTION.

The first time I bought OC, i paid $11.32 US$ for 12.50 AUS $. The second time it was $11.48 US $ for $12.50. that was about three months ago, if i remember correctly.

and then i bought the 40 $ thing and i dont remember what that was....i know it was pretty low...


and now, with the tumbling of the australian dollar on the aussie markets today, i can't give you an exact figure, since it's constantly changing every minute on the channel i'm watching, but if you're an american and youre thinking of purchasing OC NOW IS THE TIME TO DO IT......

i think with the rate i'm reading at this precise moment, for every $12.50 AUS $, you will be paying about 10.68 US
$, which is an extraodinary savings....

god i wish i had seen this coming....i would have waited. i have OC until well into 2010, so im here for the long haul, but this rate is very hard to pass up, my fellow Americans.

if youre even remotely thinking about purchasing it, DO IT NOW.

you can click on the shop and check out the rate and see precisely what it is at any moment (I think).

this goes for anything at all theyre selling in the shop--OC, T-shirts, naming credits....

i dont know if you're ever going to see a rate much better than this.

you guys know me...i dont go around plugging things unless i really believe it, but this is extraordinary what we're seeing today.....

my name is NOT Sarah Palin, but I am a soccer mom, and I approve this post.

Clap
Edited by chopchop at 21:49, 09th Oct
Edited by chopchop at 21:51, 09th Oct
Edited by chopchop at 21:56, 09th Oct
To: chopchopOwners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.171
Posted 09 Oct 08, 21:52
Message-id: 1.2623.172
it just dipped again....
Reply to: 1.2623.172
Posted 10 Oct 08, 02:43
Message-id: 1.2623.173
Chop, the ironic thing is that before seeing this I actually suggested to HB that he offer TK in USD and GBP, because it would be worth a lot more to him right now. I was also going to suggest a hedge, but that would be taking things a bit far.

As for not commenting, I was asleep. But I pretty much agree with everything that was said. Bush is a disgrace to Darwinism. If you vote Republican you are an idiot (in fact if you only ever vote for one party becuase that is what you do you are an idiot, but thats a whole new story)

I am worht more money = happy Foss. Friends are now struggling = not happy Foss. Right wing party dominating support in NZ, makes their tax cuts announcements which screw the poor for the rich and their support drops significantly = extremely happy Foss. Numpties.
From: etudeOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.173
Posted 10 Oct 08, 02:46
Message-id: 1.2623.174
Numpties?


To: etudeOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.174
Posted 10 Oct 08, 03:15
Message-id: 1.2623.175
Muppets/Morons/Idiots etc
Reply to: 1.2623.175
Posted 10 Oct 08, 10:41
Message-id: 1.2623.176
We just broke 860 with about 2 hours left before the bell. It will be interesting to see what kind of close we get.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.176
Posted 10 Oct 08, 12:29
Message-id: 1.2623.177
We've bounced over 900 with a half hour left and look to be headed to the first positive close in 8 days. I bet this isn't THE bottom, but maybe things will stabilize for a short period.
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: CerberusOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.177
Posted 10 Oct 08, 12:37
Message-id: 1.2623.178
Sell Sell Sell...Buy gold.
To: CerberusOwners Club
From: etudeOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.178
Posted 10 Oct 08, 14:38
Message-id: 1.2623.179
Coolwait wait wait, buy shares when the market is lower still, then sit n wait for it all to come back
To: etudeOwners Club
From: stschott
Reply to: 1.2623.179
Posted 10 Oct 08, 15:04
Message-id: 1.2623.180
Aye, that's my plan. I'm 23 and currently have zero investments... but that will change once the market bottoms out. I have 40 years to get a return on it.
To: stschott
From: etudeOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.180
Posted 10 Oct 08, 16:02
Message-id: 1.2623.181
i think u stole my idea lol im about the same, but while im 24 with no investments, i unfortunately have a bit of debt, so whether it will actually be financially viable for me to do what im hoping i dont no
To: stschott
From: Swampy
Reply to: 1.2623.180
Posted 10 Oct 08, 16:05
Message-id: 1.2623.182

Aye, that's my plan. I'm 23 and currently have zero investments... but that will change once the market bottoms out. I have 40 years to get a return on it.


The only problem with that thinking is being able to hang onto a job if/when the crash hits properly.
If the noodles hits the fan, its usually the younger and the older who are shown the door first and re-hired last.
Edited by mod-gopher27 at 03:42, 11th Oct
To: Swampy
From: etudeOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.182
Posted 10 Oct 08, 16:07
Message-id: 1.2623.183
well, i feel reasonably safe in my employment. im a nurse, i work for the government in public health sector, and hey, ppl will always get sick, and there is a worldwide shortage of nurses. so yeah, if the noodles hits, everyone is in trouble, but i think im safer than most in my job if that happens.
Edited by mod-gopher27 at 03:42, 11th Oct
To: stschott
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.180
Posted 11 Oct 08, 03:31
Message-id: 1.2623.184
that is quite excellent advice, stschott, for young people.....

in 87, when this happened, a lot of young people got rich buying cheap, but Reagan was president then and there was no government interference, he let the markets correct themselves....of course he didnt have the sub prime mess to deal with, nor the credit default swaps...that's the big thing now that makes this different from '87.

.....and when the Dow hit 7K right before the Iraq war, that was a good time to buy too.

actually, if a market is low right before a war, that's always a good time to buy....rich get richer, and poor die.....it's just the way it's always been.

war = good for economy, for a while at least....unless of course your country is throwing $100 Billion a year into a war in a country (Iraq) that has an $80B surplus on the books.

but the trick is either knowing when to cash out, or if you're your age then there's no need to worry, for about 45 more years.....that's assuming we still have a planet then......
Edited by chopchop at 03:32, 11th Oct
To: chopchopOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.184
Posted 11 Oct 08, 06:34
Message-id: 1.2623.185
One of the bloggers I most respect is identifying a possible bottom at around 600 on the S&P with a rally (possibly quite weak as everyone is skeptical now) in between now and then.

On the horror show side of things, if we got a total decline of the magnitude of the total decline in the Great Depression, that would leave the S&P at 157 and the Dow at 1400. I'm not calling for that, but it is a scary thought.

Chop, on the war good for the economy issue, I think it was true of WWII because of the massive employment it created. 16 million men under arms plus everbody else put to work to supply them. Now the profits of war go mainly to the stakeholders of the military suppliers. Plus there are no wars. We won two wars several years ago and have conducted disastrous occupations since then.
Edited by iddi420 at 06:44, 11th Oct
To: iddi420Owners Club
From: CarlosaOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.185
Posted 11 Oct 08, 06:54
Message-id: 1.2623.186

Now the of the military suppliers. Plus there are no wars. We won two wars several years ago and have conducted disastrous occupations since then.
Edited by iddi420 at 06:44, 11th Oct



We really need to appreciate this sentiment...good, yet sad post iddi
To: etudeOwners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.183
Posted 11 Oct 08, 14:13
Message-id: 1.2623.187

well, i feel reasonably safe in my employment. im a nurse, i work for the government in public health sector, and hey, ppl will always get sick, and there is a worldwide shortage of nurses.



Don't be too confident. I don't know what happened in the rest of the world, but during the '70s recession, government healthcare spending was cut. Admittedly the UK was a basket case at the time and it has only happened once. But that doesn't mean that it will never happen anywhere else.

Just because there is a never-ending supply of sick people, that does not mean that there is a never-ending supply of people who are able to pay taxes.
Edited by hatless at 14:14, 11th Oct
To: hatlessOwners Club
From: FlameOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.187
Posted 11 Oct 08, 14:39
Message-id: 1.2623.188
I agree with u hatless

Cuts in services such as theatre, obstetrics, aged care, bed availability etc etc etc already detrimentally affect nurse staffing levels in Australia.

Health budgets must be adhered to mwahahahaaaaa !
To: FlameOwners Club
From: iddi420Owners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.188
Posted 12 Oct 08, 04:56
Message-id: 1.2623.189
In the US there has been a steady push towards increasing patient/nurse ratio to such an extent that some nurses organizations are complaining that many institutions are becoming dangerous. Though there is still high demand and good wages for nurses at least.
Reply to: 1.2623.189
Posted 12 Oct 08, 05:59
Message-id: 1.2623.190
Would that be an attempt to gain 'efficiency' there iddi? If you improve your ratios your do better. Of course, there is a failure to see when you have gone to far as 'performance' is better, but the end product is not.
Reply to: 1.2623.190
Posted 13 Oct 08, 11:11
Message-id: 1.2623.191
Yeah Foss, I think that is would be the claim. Work the nurses harder and harder till they begin to make more mistakes and kill patients. Opens up hospital beds, reduces labor costs, and ta-da, we have efficiency. So many people seem to gloss right over the fact that perhaps efficiency should not be the primary goal of healthcare. Certainly it must be considered, but not to the exclusion of all other principles.

On the global economic outlook, I think props are in order to the UK for moving ahead with a plan that makes much more sense than the Paulson "Welfare for Wall Street" plan. So much more, in fact, that it appears Paulson is now going to copy that plan instead of using his original plan. Luckily he has authority to do it, since some dems in congress inserted it into the bailout bill despite Paulson's objections. I'm not betting on a bottom or that we are out of the woods--far from it I think. In fact these emergency measures are going to have bad consequences of their own. However, we at least are attacking it with some more rational policies that don't tilt as heavily in the direction of rewarding people who should be punished.

They are talking about whether executives should be required to take a pay cut. They should be talking about how many years in prison they get, not how much money.
Reply to: 1.2623.191
Posted 13 Oct 08, 11:18
Message-id: 1.2623.192

Yeah Foss, I think that is would be the claim. Work the nurses harder and harder till they begin to make more mistakes and kill patients. Opens up hospital beds, reduces labor costs, and ta-da, we have efficiency. So many people seem to gloss right over the fact that perhaps efficiency should not be the primary goal of healthcare. Certainly it must be considered, but not to the exclusion of all other principles.



I feel that Dylan is sure to make a comment in here somewhere soon.

(Oh and I agree on the prison thing. Over here, Gordon Brown said that the execs are going to get punished for what they have done. I took this to mean punishing them, apparently it means that they won't get as high a bonus in the future!!! WTF? That isn't a punishment, they already throw banknotes on their beds at night and roll in it before going to sleep at night*)

*this is an assumption, based on what I would do if I had all that money.
Reply to: 1.2623.192
Posted 13 Oct 08, 11:42
Message-id: 1.2623.193
I've been in and out of hospital for a few years now and have personally found that the way the nurses work in the wards is fantastic, albeit much more efficient than it used to be.

They have changed a lot in practical things, patient handover is different, instead of the early morning staff meating that takes an hour for all the nurses coming on duty to go through each file. Taking all the nurses off the ward for a while during handover. The now do it by a recorded individual patient message system.

Each patient nurse leaves a full summary of treatment and what is going on etc on a recording. Recordings are later sent to an office for printing off to put into patients file.
Nurses coming on duty listen to the recording, takes 5 mins and they are up to date on exactly what is going on with each patient. done. They can also go back at any time within the next 12 hours and listen to the recording again untill its filed.
Super efficient, saves a huge chunk of time for the nurses and loads less paperwork for them to deal with also. Leaves them to be able to do their job instead of flicking papers all day. The nurses love the system, give them more time to chat with patients also and they not running round all day like headless chickens trying to recheck info.

I cant fault even one of the nurses or cleaning staff on the ward I was on. One of the cleaners even insisted on standing and waiting while I cleaned my teeth 'just in case' I needed help.
Reply to: 1.2623.193
Posted 13 Oct 08, 11:51
Message-id: 1.2623.194
Hmmm... perhaps you are fortunate. We live in one of the best NHS trust areas, and when my wife gave birth they didn't bring her breakfast, didn't come to check on her once, didn't check to see if she was feeding the baby etc.

I don't hold it against them too much though, considering their numbers of midwives is so low. Fortunately it was our second child, and in NZ they have birthing centres, so my wife already knew a lot.

The hospital was full, and the next closest 30 mins away was full, yet in order to create efficiency they were planning on closing our one and merging it with the other one. So fit twice as many people into half the space with half the staff. Hmmmm... and this was a good trust.
Reply to: 1.2623.194
Posted 13 Oct 08, 12:02
Message-id: 1.2623.195

Hmmm... perhaps you are fortunate. We live in one of the best NHS trust areas, and when my wife gave birth they didn't bring her breakfast, didn't come to check on her once, didn't check to see if she was feeding the baby etc.



Exactly the same thing happened to my wife and she had an emergency ceasarian, they had some trainee midwives but even they weren't going to get a job there when they finished their training.

The only one who came to see her on the 2nd day was the one to check the babies hearing etc.She checked out after that and even then a doctor said he had to see her before she left(to check the wound), but after waiting 2 hourse the midwife phoned him to see when he would be coming and his reply was"oh,i'm sure it will be ok just let her go".
Edited by mod-gopher27 at 12:03, 13th Oct
Reply to: 1.2623.194
Posted 13 Oct 08, 12:04
Message-id: 1.2623.196
yeah loads still to sort out and will take a while probably till it even resembles a smooth running machine.

Saying that, They are currently building us a new local hospital in our town, which is replacing a old wartime one that is used as a geriatric hospice now.

Maybe we just lucky in this area at the moment, our big hospital which is 20 mins away from us and recently rebuilt is getting foundation hospital status now, The local univesity is doing medical training and they are linking into the big new hospital. Loads of student nurses and doctors on site most of the time and quite a few 'centres of excellence' popping up in the different departments here.

It may have been possible that I was on 'special watch' when I was in though due to my disability also, I was in a private room right accross from the nurses station so was pretty much within talking distance when the door was open. But from what I seen on the wards around me those nurses look a hell of a lot more relaxed and less harrased than what I was used to seing.
Reply to: 1.2623.196
Posted 13 Oct 08, 14:02
Message-id: 1.2623.197
I think in the old days most hopitals used to run like a well oiled machine, they spent more (excluding 'consultants' fees of course) but then ran reasonably well. But I guess there was lesser demand (population) and greater supply (of people willing to do a job that requires caring for others)

Reply to: 1.2623.197
Posted 13 Oct 08, 16:29
Message-id: 1.2623.198
I think there was also a lot less expence paid out then in diseases that cost a fortune now to treat, Or the untreatable ones then that are treatable now. Cancer, MS, ICU etc.

You went on a ward then and they did what they could for a while then sent you home. Now with all the new breakthroughs there are so many different departments etc, mostly specialising in certain things, that it cost a fortune to keep them running to treat the patients that benifit from them.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.198
Posted 13 Oct 08, 17:11
Message-id: 1.2623.199
In the olden days, people lived shorter lives and, as a result, spent less time ill.
Our increasing longevity doesn't only adversely affect health care but is a risk to the planet as the environment suffers more and more as a result (but that's another story).


To: nickbeteOwners Club
From: RickiOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.199
Posted 13 Oct 08, 18:43
Message-id: 1.2623.200
What a load of crap. We are living longer because we are healthier, as a result of advances in sanitation and medicine. The time you spend ill is not a factor of your life expectancy - it is a factor of your genetics and lifestyle.

Nor does longevity affect environment - the environment is more a result of total world population - which has more to do with religion and poverty than with longevity.
To: nickbeteOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.199
Posted 13 Oct 08, 19:44
Message-id: 1.2623.201
They spent less time ill as they died from things that are pretty easily cured now. Most of the time is was from simple infections, childbirth problems and broken limbs that never healed properly.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: DylanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.201
Posted 13 Oct 08, 22:25
Message-id: 1.2623.202
To: RickiOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.200
Posted 14 Oct 08, 03:09
Message-id: 1.2623.203

Nor does longevity affect environment - the environment is more a result of total world population - which has more to do with religion and poverty than with longevity.



Doesn't longevity result in a higher population if compared to a period where people died earlier?

And poverty tends to lower life expectancy rates, so perhaps that we should be pushing to make people poorer, not richer.

As for the religion, I think that isn't a direct link to increased population. Some religions do promote large families, bt is isn't really a guiding factor.

Population increases are generally a result of lack of knowledge or understanding, mixed witha need to survive the elements. there are generally higher populations in areas where there is a larger risk of death during childhood. If the odds are twice as great of your child dying, then you will generally produce twice as many children so that the end result is the same. However, due to the onset of globalisation, colonisations etc, this approach used to work, whereas now there are greater influences preventing early death (less wars, improved access to sanitation, medicines etc). But, the general mindset to change takes a lot longer so the population survival rate has increased without a change in the mindset to ensure that we don't overpopulate.

At least, that is my opinion.
To: RickiOwners Club
From: nickbeteOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.200
Posted 14 Oct 08, 07:09
Message-id: 1.2623.204

What a load of crap. We are living longer because we are healthier, as a result of advances in sanitation and medicine. The time you spend ill is not a factor of your life expectancy - it is a factor of your genetics and lifestyle.

Nor does longevity affect environment - the environment is more a result of total world population - which has more to do with religion and poverty than with longevity.



Back in the 17th century the life expectancy for a male was aroung 45 years. Not sure what it is now but many people live to 80. Is someone then or now going to spend more days during their life time in a hospital on average?

So people living longer does not increase world population?
You're the one spouting crap, mate.
To: nickbeteOwners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.204
Posted 14 Oct 08, 07:18
Message-id: 1.2623.205
Lets all stop being silly.

There is only one reason for population growth. That is, people are being born at a faster rate than they are dying.
Reply to: 1.2623.205
Posted 14 Oct 08, 10:32
Message-id: 1.2623.206

Lets all stop being silly.

There is only one reason for population growth. That is, people are being born at a faster rate than they are dying.



Or eaten. I blame the extinction of the wild animals.
Reply to: 1.2623.206
Posted 15 Oct 08, 00:52
Message-id: 1.2623.207
well, if they wouldnt have made such a big deal of that woman feeding her baby to the dingos..........
Reply to: 1.2623.206
Posted 15 Oct 08, 02:26
Message-id: 1.2623.208


--------------------------------
Lets all stop being silly.

There is only one reason for population growth. That is, people are being born at a faster rate than they are dying.
--------------------------------

Or eaten. I blame the extinction of the wild animals.


and the decline in cannibalism?
To: Swampy
From: CerberusOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.208
Posted 15 Oct 08, 03:07
Message-id: 1.2623.209



and the decline in cannibalism?



They opened a WalMart in the middle of the Amazon.
To: Swampy
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.208
Posted 15 Oct 08, 05:35
Message-id: 1.2623.210

and the decline in cannibalism?



No. I believe the decline in cannibalism is not a factor. If you are not going to eat your children then there is less incentive to breed them.
Reply to: 1.2623.210
Posted 15 Oct 08, 06:26
Message-id: 1.2623.211
Too true. but you wouldn't eat your own children. You'd have to trade them for someone elses surely.
From: tapayOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.211
Posted 15 Oct 08, 06:54
Message-id: 1.2623.212

Too true. but you wouldn't eat your own children. You'd have to trade them for someone elses surely.



http://art-bin.com/art/omodest.html
To: tapayOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.212
Posted 15 Oct 08, 07:21
Message-id: 1.2623.213
Wow, that is friggin nuts
Reply to: 1.2623.213
Posted 15 Oct 08, 10:57
Message-id: 1.2623.214
nuts to read that entire text...
a summary please? Wink
To: SuEpAhFlYOwners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.214
Posted 15 Oct 08, 11:05
Message-id: 1.2623.215
This excerpt explains the main point:

I grant this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children.

Infant's flesh will be in season throughout the year, but more plentiful in March, and a little before and after; for we are told by a grave author, an eminent French physician, that fish being a prolific diet, there are more children born in Roman Catholic countries about nine months after Lent than at any other season; therefore, reckoning a year after Lent, the markets will be more glutted than usual, because the number of popish infants is at least three to one in this kingdom: and therefore it will have one other collateral advantage, by lessening the number of papists among us.
To: SuEpAhFlYOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.214
Posted 15 Oct 08, 11:18
Message-id: 1.2623.216
lol Johnothan Swift was noted for hard hitting works to force the in house government to change their practices. That letter he wrote was pure sarcastic satire aimed at a government who were coming up with all sorts of hair brained idea's at the time. Problem is that its now quoted in full but out of context, so it seems it was a genuine proposal and not sarcastic satire.

I think the idea of the government at the time was to take all irish children under 2 and forcibly put them into foster homes in england, so Swift said, why bother, just eat them, I'm sure the mothers would fatten them up for you.

wiki entry

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal
Edited by Talisman at 11:30, 15th Oct
Reply to: 1.2623.216
Posted 15 Oct 08, 12:50
Message-id: 1.2623.217
I had a feeling he was just taking the wee. But that is still absolutely nuts.

EDITED for goph. was meant to edit earlier but wouldn't let me access it. Ah well. Great minds goph.
Edited by Mod-fossunited at 14:33, 15th Oct
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.216
Posted 15 Oct 08, 13:36
Message-id: 1.2623.218
The people in this game seem to be far more erudite than the people who play either of the two online football management games that I'm a member of.

I do not think that reflects well on football fans.
To: hatlessOwners Club
From: TalismanOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.218
Posted 15 Oct 08, 14:24
Message-id: 1.2623.219
(looks up the word erudite)

Yeah agreed, but this is after all the sport of kings. Actually, so was football lol. was invented in china and one of their kings layed down the rules after too many were getting hurt.

On a football site they are expected to be course and uncival, so they act it. probably find a load of teachers, lawyers etc in there also.
To: TalismanOwners Club
From: hatlessOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.219
Posted 15 Oct 08, 14:46
Message-id: 1.2623.220
I used to work in the photo-sales department of a national newspaper. Football fans were immediately recognisable on the the phone.

A non-football fan would begin a phone conversation like this:
"Good afternoon. I saw a photograph on page 17 of yesterday's newspaper. Is it possible to buy a copy?"

Talking with a football fan would go like this:
Fan: Umm. Emm. It's aboot ee phoatee - eh wan in eh pepper. (It's about the photograph - the one in the newspaper)
Me: Would that be a photo from the football section?
Fan: Aye. How'd ye ken?
Me: Just a guess.
To: hatlessOwners Club
From: RickiOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.220
Posted 15 Oct 08, 18:43
Message-id: 1.2623.221
Clap
To: RickiOwners Club
From: RickiOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.221
Posted 16 Oct 08, 01:19
Message-id: 1.2623.222
Heard one today that maybe should be in the Jokes thread. The bloke reckoned this global recession was worse than divorce. He has lost half his wealth but STILL has his wife. Wink
To: RickiOwners Club
From: chopchopOwners Club
Reply to: 1.2623.222
Posted 16 Oct 08, 01:29
Message-id: 1.2623.223
lol......that's a good one. contrary to popular belief, i enjoy blonde jokes...god knows, ive heard enough of them.

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