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We got the expected bloodbath on Wall Street from the Lehman bankruptcy. Dow fell 504 today. Bank of America had a shotgun marriage with Merril Lynch. Think about where we are: 3 of the 5 biggest investment banks at the beginning of this year no longer exist! Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been bailed out at a cost that could easily approach 300 billion or more.
And from what I can tell the carnage is nowhere near over. Washington Mutual, the largest savings and loan in the US appears unlikely to last much longer than a week. It may well be next weekend's Lehman. AIG, the largest insurer, is teetering on the brink of collapse and begging handouts from the government just to keep its doors open. Citi Group, the largest commercial bank may also be one of the next to go. And there are over 500 billion worth of Alt-A mortgages about to melt down that from all accounts I've heard are going to be worse than sub-prime. And let us not forget bad unemployment that only seems to be accelerating to the downside (at least in the US).
So are we near that much ballyhooed point of maximum pessimism that is supposed to signal a market turn-around that will leave this ugly mess behind as one more forgettable recession? Or, now that pretty much everyone who lived through the Great Depression is dead and no longer able to warn us, did we repeat those same mistakes and doom ourselves to a long-lasting economic depression?
to bad i aint got the money.
and no i dont think this is the big one.
it might have a great affect on our economy but it won;t be as bad as the depression
thats what i beleive
but who am i but a lowly college kid...?
The scope of the problem has been minimized and lied about all along so it is difficult to figure out where things really stand. One way they keep trying to be decitfully optimistic is by saying "well, over 1000 banks failed in the '80s and that wasn't too awful." What they leave out though is that just one bank that has failed so far, Indymac, is larger than all 1000+ banks that failed in the '80s combined. And there are bigger banks than Indymac that will yet collapse barring a miracle.
Pritty sure its a US recession and not a Global Recession
Dont think so Dylan, its hitting the UK also already, we been in the bite of this whole credit crunch thing for nearly a year now also. Fuel prices keep fluctuating and food prices going through the roof. Thousands a month are losing their homes etc also. Economy here is on the knife edge of a full blown recession.
This will truly be a global recession which I expect to last for 2-3yrs.
The US government has pledged 200 billion to prop up Fannie and Freddie, 29 billion for Bear Stearns, AIG is looking for a 40 billion lifeline and BoA has bought Merrill for 50 billion. So around 320 billion all up. I think these are the big ones. Some others may fall but they won't need the kind of bail out that Freddie & Fannie did.
That sounds like a lot of money. But in the context of US military spend of 700 billion a year it's peanuts. In fact, what this means is the US government is quite constrained in regard to throwing their weight around on the world stage (so no more situations like Georgia or sabre rattling over Iran). Wonderful stuff! The changing of the guard. And while this happens, Asian banks are buying up. I was reading today one Asian bank was saying you'd never be able to buy into the US market this cheaply again. Hysterical...especially as it's 10 years since the Asian financial crisis...these things can turn around quite quickly...

The UK Govt. is too hung up on inflation which is not something the American Govt. is too bothered about - if they need more money they just print it and sod inflation!
Edited by Maestro at 00:36, 16th Sep
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Pritty sure its a US recession and not a Global Recession
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Dont think so Dylan, its hitting the UK also already, we been in the bite of this whole credit crunch thing for nearly a year now also. Fuel prices keep
fluctuating and food prices going through the roof. Thousands a month are losing their homes etc also. Economy here is on the knife edge of a full blown
recession.
Its just an International Correction
It will pick up when India gets off the ground and becomes the new china with economic growth at around 10%
I really dont know what to do. This was the largest drop in the DOW since 9/11, and today I'm sort of waiting to see what's going to happen.
I saw most of the European markets were pretty hard hit as well, yesterday, (well, except for the Germans). The Asian markets seemed ok...
I dont know who to blame, and I'm really not interested in that. The only thing i really do know for sure is that I think neither one of the bums we have running for President has a clue either.
McCain said yesterday our economy is "fundamentally strong". In fact, he gave almost the same speech that the American President gave in the early 30s, at the beginning of the Great Depression here.
And Obama wants to raise taxes, and even I know that during a recession, or possible depression, the last thing you do is raise taxes, because it forces companies to cut jobs.....and i didnt even major in economics in college. In fact, I didnt even take an economics class, I dont think...i know i took a math class, but if there's no money to count, that really doesnt do me any good either, does it?
I think I'll just vote for TK-Hairboy for President as a write-in vote, simply because he predicted this was going to happen....lol....
Seriously, does anyone out there really have a clue? I always thought if this happened, I would just run to Europe, but i dont know now.....at least I have a place to go there.....but Honk Kong is looking better and better all the time.
I think TK-Hairboy is right....but i dont think India's the place for me....Hong Kong is nice tho.
Maybe Yaggy should chime in here, because he's some kind of financial person who knows a great deal and has given me a lot of insight as to financial, umm, "things", but I know that everytime something like this happens, he starts going crazy at work.....Yaggy, are you out there??????
Oh, this doesn't mean that class league race purses are going to get smaller, right? no? whew...thank god. well, i guess everything's ok then.....cheers!
Edited by chopchop at 02:37, 16th Sep
Edited by chopchop at 02:39, 16th Sep
And can it possibly have any impact on this? http://www.trackking.org/horse.php?hid=164812
No wonder he is a fast finisher!
Ever since Palin the she-wolf got nominated for the veep spot. It has been non-stop Michael Palin lines with my Brit friends over the footy weekends.
'The Castle Anthrax?!?'
first i liked hillary, but she lost, so then i liked obama, mostly because i didnt like mccain, then palin came in and i thought she was kind of neat.
but now theyre saying she's spouting all these lies about the bridge to nowhere (wheverever that is) and trying to get her brother-in-law fired (which i think is ok, because i'd like to fire a couple of sisters-in-law, if i had a company and they worked for me), but then she said she wouldnt answer any questions about it, and now im just basically confused about the whole darned election.
who should i vote for? whenever i can make a poll (my poll thingy isnt working in my forum, and hasnt been for the last couple weeks), BUT when it does start working, maybe ill just ask in a poll who i should vote for, and the one with the most votes, well, that's who I'll vote for.
Edited by chopchop at 02:56, 16th Sep
Not that i have anything against communists, but gray is simply not my color....and i dont look good in those gray tunic things they have to wear, so HK is definitely out of the question....now im really confused.
If I was britain, I would have flattened it on principle.
i was sort of joking because the person on msn told me i would have to become a communist, i really put it on there for his benefit....he's saying he really didnt know.
but i still dont look good in gray, so moving there is still out of the question.
btw, the guy on msn....he's not american....i wont say what nationality he is....but let's just say Queen Elizabeth II is still the titular head of state of the country he lives in.....
In addition to Banks offering easy credit (greed), advisers offering mortgages to sub prime individuals who could not afford (greed) and individuals chasing the dream (greed) we can not ignore the effect central banks have had. They kept interest rates at such low levels not experienced for quite some time which fueled the above scenario. Nor can we ignore the lack or regulation/understanding in the financial market; especially the US/Wall St which was governed by a 'light touch' regime akin to pseudo self regulation.
This is not just a US issue as evidenced by UBS writing off some $40bn to date and a number of banks worldwide either arranging deeply discounted rights issues (RBS, Fortis, HBOS)or going cap in hand the the far east (Barclays, Citi etc). In effect what we are seeing is contagion.
The future is somewhat uncertain; however i do not expect a total meltdown (fingers xd). What is clear is that regulation will tighten unilaterally which will lead to more prudent principles being adopted by the financial community as a whole. We will witness further collapses and the strong becoming stronger so expect more mergers and acquisitions and don't rule out purchases of well known Banks by the Japanese who are cash rich in view of their own crisis some 10-15 years back. In effect capitalism
This may be difficult to stomach now and I do feel for those people who may lose jobs, houses etc; however I have a feeling that this episode may prove to be beneficial in the long term; providing we get a total overhaul and eradication of such unscrupulous practices.
Ps i will leave this argument to another day; however institutional and private investors didn't care too much when the stocks were rising (i.e. how they were making their profits) and what about the Auditors responsibility!?
Edited by yaggy at 04:18, 16th Sep
now, can we go for a latte? theyre still only $4.
institutional and private investors didn't care too much when the stocks were rising (i.e. how they were making their profits) and what about the Auditors responsibility!?
As for the first part of that sentence, I agree completely. The only really losers are those who entered late (and the CEOs of the companies who screwed everyone, but they are losers ina different way). The rest of them had big benefits prior to their losses, so they should net off slightly ahead I think.
As for the auditors responsibility, what on earth are you one about? The auditors are responsible to declaring whether published accounts represent a true and fair view of a companies situation. There were no wholesale frauds (which it is not actually an auditors role to pick up on, yet people like to blame them), there was just a breaking point. The only thing you could ping on an auditor was their consideration of a going concern, but if they were expected to comment on the going concern in the environment that their opinion was given over the years, then it would be justified. Unless there was reason for the auditors to expect debtors to not pay, and for all intensive purposes that would involve them having a crystal ball trying to identify it, then they did nothing wrong. People just like to blame them for the mistakes i.e. Enron, where they destroyed an accounting firm, who later on it was deemed that they were not at fault. Which is nice, considering from an audit perspective if the client is giving you false documents and information that you had no way of verifying that they were, you can't do much about it.
I used to be an auditor, and have worked for Andersen, E&Y and PWC, and this mindset of the public that the Auditors should pick everything up is ludicrous. To do so would involved checking every single transaction that ever occurred, verifying it's legitimacy via third parites and then deciding that it is appropriate. You wouldn't get an audit opinion on any company for a couple of years.
Which is irrelevant for the current issue anyway, since I think the problems arose from accepted business practises, not from dodgy transactions. Auditors role isn't to run a business, it's to confirm that what the business says happened, did happen.
Better than the fascist, redneck backwater that Howard was creating...
Hear, hear
Although my main worry at the moment is my US trip in 2 weeks time. The $AU is dropping like a stone which is not fair because it is the US's that has stuffed up.
Very selfish I know, but my spending money is fast dissappearing. I was going to do my part to help the US economy, but now I have less spending money to do it

In current climate you take the good when you can get it.
Why not buy your cash now? In all honesty, if I was from Oz and knew I was going on a trip, I'd have bought it earlier when it was reasonably high, but I wouldn't have got annoyed if it went a bit higher.
Valid point, but what you failed to comprehend is that I am a complete idiot.
Luckily I paid for most of my accom and flights when near parity, and have picked up some cash now at around the 82 mark.
Hindsight is 20/20 though.

All the the talk is that AIG will be propped up by whatever means necessary since it is claimed that they pose systemic risk in case of failure. I wish there were some way to judge claims like this. The absolute lack of transparency to ordinary investors/curious people is one of the most troubling aspects of this whole crisis to me. CEOs have lied and lied and lied all the way through this and the largest financial companies in the world, which are allegedly public companies, are allowed to keep their books secret and say they are strong and have no need to raise capital days before they raise capital. Some have done it repeatedly just during the last year. All the way down we've been told "this is the bottom," "these are the last of the write-downs," "this is the last time we need to raise capital." Lies,lies,lies. And still there is no way for us mere mortals to figure out where these companies truly stand, or the world financial system for that matter.
We need transparency, and we need a whole lot more "perp walks" featuring executives in handcuffs. I hope I'm just getting caught up in the pessimism but I see no end in sight.
Even with the bailout measures credit destruction is still outpacing attempts to reinflate the economy. That appears to be the true systemic risk to me. Unlimited debt that is inflated away over time seems to be a fundamental principle of the modern global financial system, but right now the Fed is powerless to reinflate. This may come down to a question of whether we will ultimately take our deflationary medicine or if the government will reinflate by any means necessary. Given the failure of all the means thus far tried, it could take truly extreme measures to go that route.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7617976.stm
But on the bright side, it looks like it's causing a fall in commodity prices. If commodity prices remain low then that should help with inflation concerns and perhaps prevent a global recession.
I'm pessimistic though. I think we're heading for a 3-5 year global recession. Some countries will be lucky and remain unscathed, but I think the USA will be hardest hit. The USA is addicted to subsidies and trade barriers and that will make it a lot harder for them to recover. It's a bit ironic considering that USA considers itself to be the home of the free market.
Edited by hatless at 06:53, 16th Sep
I have to admit, I don't read any newpapers from the sub continent, but they don't seem overly fussed by the issues the western world is having. In fact, I think they are enjoying it.
I say, bring back the stocks, and the rotten fruit and veges, and line up some Directors for a bit of a battering.
Doesn't look like a depression as bad as the 30's but noone is going to be smiling for a year or so.
and the other world markets will probably follow.
there are still some major thiings happening out there w/AIG, because theyre into so many international companies. quite a bit would hinge on what happens to them i think.
definitely a buyer's market now, tho. but today's closing bell at NYSE was very encouraging.
do you really think Aus. is going to be communist, Dylan? oh my, that means gray is going to be in next season...maybe i should buy stocks in companies that sell gray fabric only.
on friday, they tell the world they are NOT bailing out AIG for the 20 billion they needed, so they got rated down three points, and now they need 85 billion to bail out, so now the Fed is going to give them the money.
i was just watching Larry King, and Suzie Orman is on. She's pretty good. She said if they had just given them 20 billion on Friday, they wouldnt have gotten downrated, causing this massive panic.
what a pathetic state of mind our govt. is in....i am soooo ready to go back to Europe.
also the Fed is getting 79.9 % of AIG for the loan....does this mean we're moving towards nationalized health care.... like the UK?
how does nationalized health care work for you guys in the UK? can someone please explain.
oh btw, i dont have AIG health insurance, so im not really affected, but it would have been a huge blow to the markets if they had gone belly up.
but still, the Fed could have saved 65 B. if they had bailed them out on Friday. i really dont understand most of this, but this is sort of scary.
Edited by chopchop at 18:31, 16th Sep
Basically. everyone gets free health care. end of.
If your a citizen, Naturalised, visiting from a european union country. Part of the Commonwealth and visiting. All free care. You pay squat, nadda, not a penny.
Sure sometimes you have to wait for none essential operations, and some regretfully have to wait for essential ones. And it does have its problems. like too many damn managers and not enough pay for the hard working brilliant staff on the 'ground floor' etc
I been in and out of NHS hospitals for years, and I cant complain one bit about them.
I was born in the UK, moved to Africa with my parents when I was young, and was brought up with a health insurance system. No insurance, No medical, end of story, or bring that cash to the front desk when you break your leg.
Came back to England when I was 21, and was told by my mothers family to fill in these forms, fill in those forms. go to the docs for an initial medical. WHAT YOU MEAN I DONT NEED INSURANCE? HuH.
Week later I got a cheque through the door. HUH. For what? I've not been to work yet. Ohhhh its your Giro, we pay YOU not to work. crazy isnt it.
The people in this country have no idea just how lucky they are, and yet they still complain and whine etc about the lives they live. Personally I'm lucky as hell I was diagnosed with the condition I have while in the UK and not in Africa a year earlier. No chance of ever getting insurance them. Means I cant work and would mean you dont eat either, or live in a nice house etc.
UK national health is fantastic. You get what you need and wait for what you dont need mostly.
Edited by Talisman at 19:38, 16th Sep
In answer to health care question, I don't think this in anyway causes a move towards national health care. Really this is the opposite. It is socializing care for the largest corporations. When times are good the profits roll in to the private owners and now that times are bad the losses are passed off to the tax payers. It really is stunning to see the largest mortgage gaurantor and now the largest insurance company nationalized. I think this without precedent in US history. It certainly represents the most robust socialism we have ever seen in this country, and wouldn't you know it, even socialism is for the rich here.
We now have two gargantuan nationalizations and the destruction of 3 of 5 biggest investment banks all during this calender year. Ominous signs.
Edited by iddi420 at 21:24, 16th Sep
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Better than the fascist, redneck backwater that Howard was creating...
--------------------------------
Hear, hear
Although my main worry at the moment is my US trip in 2 weeks time. The $AU is dropping like a stone which is not fair because it is the US's that
has stuffed up.
Very selfish I know, but my spending money is fast dissappearing. I was going to do my part to help the US economy, but now I have less spending money
to do it
I bought $2000 US a few weeks back when the AUD was at 92 Cents
Im luv'n it


Bank of scotland which is part of Halifax banking system is being bailed out by Lloyds bank. and Halifax main bank is being bailed by the government.
Thats my 'unresearched' version though, as I'm reading it on the surface, not really had a good look at how its working yet.
So possibly two of our big mortgage banks in serious trouble this week.
Edited by HenryCecil at 12:33, 17th Sep
Watch out UK. I heard the British Bankers Association say today that British banks are sound.
That is definitely a football manager's vote of confidence.
I had to check the user name for the above post, i actually thought dylan posted it 
Yes its called a life long plan.
Instead of trying to pickup in public forums

.
Youre much to immature for me anyway

If its HBOS your on about they arent collapsing or needing bailing out, their share price fell by 32% but they arent folding ,
actually far from it they are merging with someone else to form our biggest bank from what i hear
Edited by HenryCecil at 12:33, 17th Sep
Only sort of Henry from what I can tell. PM has had his sticky fingers in there somewhere and told Lloyds to hurry up with the 'merge' asap.
Seemingly started out innocent enough, planned merge etc, but the leak of the plan caused a stock crash and uncertainty in HBOS, specilation was that the merge was due to to HBOS being in trouble. Now due to the stock crash they are, and Lloyds was rethinking their position and renegotiating the original merge plans.
Expected 'runs' on Halifax and bank of Scotland due this week. If that happends chances are that Lloyds will pull out the deal and buy up HBOS instead on a forced takeover.
All up in the air at them moment now, again due to speculations and weak position on the stock market.
You could say that it is better than a taxpayer bailout, however, tax payer money is still financing lots of the deals through questionable new powers being exercised by our central bank. So even the non-bailouts have a heavy bailout aspect to them.
Every American needs to be aware of the fact that we could have paid for decades of Universal Healthcare for what has been comitted to bailing out Wall Street just this year. That should be plastered on every billboard, news paper, and TV station.
anyone know where i can get hold of some E coli, and bring it over....or do they have it in the UK?
thanks for the explanation, Tal..i had no idea the sysrem worked like that.....i knew you guys had high taxes.....but god, it seems that medical more than makes up for it.
i hope your condition gets better, too, Tal...we're all praying for you here.
i knew you guys had high taxes.....but god, it seems that medical more than makes up for it.
Our tax rates are actually very similar to those in the USA.
Check out the links to compare:
http://en.wikipedia.org/w...me_brackets_and_tax_rates
http://en.w...pedia.org/w.../Income_tax_uk#Income_tax
Also the UK government spend less on healthcare than the USA government. Because the USA system is so incredibly inefficient it costs more to provide essential services to those with no insurance than it does for the UK to provide universal healthcare for everyone.
Edited by hatless at 06:56, 18th Sep
Chop, e-coli is so 90's. We've got MRSA for our superbug. Available in all NHS hospitals near you.
MRSA is sort of 'yesterday' now really foss, 'todays' new one is c.difficile, this the new one they hiding and telling people doesnt exist etc.
If you put a lot of sick people in the same place then some of them are going to die.
Moms sister got MRSA while in one of the local hospitals. After they changed dressing on her leg they were actuall left on the windowsill for nearly a week. Needless to say some cleaning staff got fired over that one. MRSA infected dressings on a public windowsill in a 8 bed ward full of surgery patients. Sort of out of line and asking for trouble.
Problems with the new one is that they still not testing for it, and loads of people dying from it when all they are suspected of having is 'the runs' and sent home.
Personally, being left-wing to the absolute extreme, I wouldn't dream of getting health insurance. Instead the money goes into a savings fund for the kids. Much better IMHO, and still available if we had an emergency.....but then again, if you have an emergency the public system works beautifully. I've been to the local public hospital twice over the past 3 years with "serious" but not life-threatening issues, and been admitted and assigned a bed on both occasions within an hour of turning up at the hospital door.
I'm incredibly sorry for you yanks....enforced medical insurance and limited welfare = far more right-wing than I'd ever find acceptable.
There are all sorts of different systems in place all-over the world and most of them work reasonably well at a lower cost to the tax-payer than the American system. They should just chose one - any one - and give it a try.
Concerns about 'socialising' medicine are just silly. They have 'socialised' education and postal systems and neither of them have caused the USA to become a communist state.
If socialism is a genuine concern then why does the US government continue to subsidise private industry in areas such as aviation, rail, cotton, timber and oil?
Edited by hatless at 08:10, 18th Sep
I know my wife has saved many 1000's of dollars on her shoulder operations, as have I on my knees and nose (
). Of course if we didn't play sport then it wuld be a whole different matter.
Even if it didn't quite work out right, my stubborn belief in my own ideals is so strong that I still wouldn't be paying. I guess my stubbornness is shown by this website lol - the "sensible" thing would have been to stay at work in my comfortable and well-paid government job, and never attempt this project....
Edited by TK-hairboy at 18:34, 18th Sep
You have 'sensible' thoughts? god forbid, never
thought it was possible. I'm amazed.
Glad your 'unsensible' side won out on this occasion though or wouldnt be in this forum.

Need i say more

I've been to the local public hospital twice over the past 3 years with "serious" but not life-threatening issues, and been admitted and assigned a bed on both occasions within an hour of turning up at the hospital door
Where I come from a 3 hour wait is usually considered quick. The exception being if the ambulance hauls your butt into the building. A 5 hour wait is not uncommon and the waiting room is very rarely crowded.
Be careful what you wish for, and don't believe everything that they teach you in Year 12 economics.
Efficiency is a relative term Dylan. Next thing you know you'll be suggesting schools are inefficient and should be
privatised too. The problem is that in order to create 'efficiencies' there are often other ineffective things created. If you wanted, I
could give you a nice argument proving that privatisation and the idea of making profits actually creates greater inefficiencies in a market.
Be careful what you wish for, and don't believe everything that they teach you in Year 12 economics.
You give me an industry thats had total Micro economic reform thats been inefficient.
Be the first things for me to look into when im older
PS I have no idea what Micro economic reform means.
At that point you will then think back to this moment, and realise, 'Hey, that guy knew what he was talking about'.
While I don't know that much about you, I know this. In highschool I studied economics for 5 years, and accounting for 3, and I thought that I knew everything about it. I was a genius on the matter, and had no problem spouting off all that I had been told. Then I spent 6 years at university, obtaining a law degree, and a management degree, and I started learning alternative theories and arguments, and realised that that the very basic ideas and concepts that they teach you at school are nothing. I studied more indepth studies performed by well recognised economists, and I came out of that thinking that there is actualy a lot more to this than you think.
So then I started working for Andersen, then EY, admittedly as an auditor, not an economist, and you start learning about the many different businesses, how they operate, and are able to compare between different entities in the same industry, and different entities in similar industries. I had clients covering private and public organisations, so I saw a fair bit.
But even during that I realised, that there is a hell of a lot more to these ideas than you realise. So I read, a hell of a lot. There are econmists who argue both for and against concepts and ideas, and are well recognised by their peers, but completely contradict each other. It isn't as cut and dry as you seem to believe.
I am incredibly cynical of all the crap which the general public belives nowadays. I fit into the perfect criteria of someone who would vote for a right wing party, yet for some reason I find them absolutely repulsive and disgusting. The bases for their beliefs and policies are significantly flawed.
Dylan, no offence, but you are just at the very early stages of your development. If this is something that you enjoy then go and study it. You should follow something which is a passion. No doubt you follow the messiah of modern economics, Adam Smiths doctrine of a free market provides the most efficient allocation of resources. But, like the bible, the Wealth of Nations has been significantly taken out of context, misquoted and selectively used to benefit those who want to be rich. But you will learn this one day if you study it properly.
Just please, if you learn anything today, remember that what you have been told isn't ever to be taken as gospel. I was seriously exactly like you, spouting the same crap, using the same arguments. I was wrong, and if knew then what I knew now I would have been a lot quieter in my opinions I think.
As an aside, you'll also realise at the age of about 22-23, that as a teenage you were an absolute dropkick. This isn't aimed at you, it is just a general thing that I think most of us realise. A similar thing will happen in your late 20's about you in your early 20's. I am waiting to see if a similar epiphany happens in my 30's at some point abou me right now.
Edited by mod-fossunited at 03:27, 19th Sep
As an aside, you'll also realise at the age of about 22-23, that as a teenage you were an absolute dropkick. This isn't aimed at you, it is just a general thing that I think most of us realise. A similar thing will happen in your late 20's about you in your early 20's. I am waiting to see if a similar epiphany happens in my 30's at some point abou me right now.
You got that right. I was an absolute arsehole when I was a teenager and I wasn't much better in my twenties.
I strongly suspect that I am going to spend my whole life believing that ten years ago I was an idiot.
There's a certain amount of truth in what Foss is saying but I hope he doesn't think he knows it all because like any (social) science there are new discoveries and theories appearing all the time.
Believe me, I don't think I know it all for taht very reason. I am continually learning more about things even now that I am no longer at uni. But I do think that I have learnt more about this than Dylan.
As for not arguing your point Dylan, that is because I don't see a need to. I am willing to bet that I could guess what a lot of your responses would be, and in all honesty I think that right now they are from an extremely limited viewpoint.
I don't think you have yet grasped the concept of what efficiency really is, and as a result it is very difficult for us to really have a decent argument on it.
If you want me to give you a list of really recent publications that are actually entertaining to read, generally, I don't mind. Most libraries should have them on their shelves somewhere if you don't want to buy them.
As an aside, I'll say something about efficiency. The privatized US health system costs twice as much as a % of GDP as many countries with universal care, yet those countries have better society-wide health outcomes. That is inefficient to the extreme. Yet the private market loves it, they're making billions in profit. In fact they would love for us to keep spending more and more and creating more profits for them while continuing to have bad results for society. I don't see any efficiency anywhere, except in inflating profits. They are unbelievably efficient at that.
That doesn't even begin to address the human pain and tragedy that happens every single day under this system. As far as which is more tragic, you can take your pick.
I agree as well, short selling really isn't the biggest problem here, it is just a problem once all the other problems come to light and the downward spiral starts.
As for the creation of more profits and inefficiency problem, couldn't agree more. As I said in one of my responsed to the big D, I could write a huge amount on the ineffectiveness of the profit mindset.
It just really pees me off that the profits are privatised yet taking the brunt of the loss it gets passed on to the tax payers. And you see guys/gals walking away from a shambles with multi million pound pay offs.
I agree. I think a lot of the public seem to fail to see that after banks shafting us left right and centre for how long now, when a government bails them out it is actually joe pubic doing it. So we pay them fortunes for them to be greedy, then pay them even more because they are about as competent as a sackfull of arses.
Win win.
Is it really too much to ask that publicly traded financial companies have to tell the truth about what is on their books? Is it too much to ask that these companies be tightly regulated since every taxpayer is on the hook for their losses when they make a mistake?
Looking at the bigger picture, the Gov'ts have little choice due to the impact on most other industries of this crisis. At the end of the day, it's probably cheaper to bail them out than let them collapse - I still don't like it one bit, though.
I am wondering if all of these entities that survive will have to pay off the massive debt that they owe. I have a feeling that they won't.
It looks like they've chosen the option of reinflating by any means necessary and the means are truly extreme. One would think that this may have the power to kill the dollar rally, though it seems to be holding up so far.
You got that right. I was an absolute arsehole when I was a teenager and I wasn't much better in my twenties.
I strongly suspect that I am going to spend my whole life believing that ten years ago I was an idiot.
So nothing changes then?

--------------------------------
There's a certain amount of truth in what Foss is saying but I hope he doesn't think he knows it all because like any (social) science
there are new discoveries and theories appearing all the time.
--------------------------------
Believe me, I don't think I know it all for taht very reason. I am continually learning more about things even now that I am no longer at
uni. But I do think that I have learnt more about this than Dylan.
As for not arguing your point Dylan, that is because I don't see a need to. I am willing to bet that I could guess what a lot of your
responses would be, and in all honesty I think that right now they are from an extremely limited viewpoint.
I don't think you have yet grasped the concept of what efficiency really is, and as a result it is very difficult for us to really have a
decent argument on it.
If you want me to give you a list of really recent publications that are actually entertaining to read, generally, I don't mind. Most
libraries should have them on their shelves somewhere if you don't want to buy them.
Reading 27 Economics Textbooks that was published by 27 Professors with 27 Doctorates still does not make you have suffecient knowledge.
Greatest Economists are the ones that think outside the box, Try new and innovative ideas.
Give me 3 Problems with privatising a Large quanity of the health system
Your a student as far as I can tell, they are experienced proffesionals who have worked in the industry. no contest.
Believe me, what you learn in school and college does NOT match up to out of class experiences, they are completely different worlds.
What you learn in a class / lecture, doesnt even touch the surface, and yet you are trying here to make out they have no idea what they are on about. Probably not a great idea to keep on the track that you are. Your going to end up getting flamed pretty unrelentingly.
old saying. Dont try teach your grandmother to suck eggs.
New Saying. When In doubt, Dont throw your self at the Speakers Demographics
Edited by dylan at 18:54, 19th Sep
I'll be blunt, as I usually am.
Trying to make yourself look smart by making an effort to make others look stupid only makes you look like a jackass.
I wont say any more on this topic. Try going back and reading how your phrasing things and how others percieve it. Not good.

Give me 3 Problems with privatising a Large quanity of the health system
Just need 3 points with a couple points of explanation?
Trying to make yourself look smart by making an effort to make others look stupid only makes you look like a jackass.
I wont say any more on this topic. Try going back and reading how your phrasing things and how others percieve it. Not good.
Another one who cant answer a Simple question and answer to the theory of privatising the Health System?
Was it last night you were to
tired to argue Dylan? Obviously wide awake 2day arent we
Your making a good natured discussion into a bad tempered argument between people.
I'm not sure anyone really cares much that you studied that exact topic last week and have the answers written down in front of you. And i'm sure as hell not writing you up an exam question for you to rattle off more school textbook basics that have no grounding in the real world.
Read my last post Dylan.
(sorry mods. I'll shut up now.)
Was it last night you were to tired
to argue Dylan? Obviously wide awake 2day arent we
Still tired
All im looking for is just 3 Justifications on why the Health System should not be privatised.
Instead I get this crap
"Oooo Stop trying to boost your ego"
"Son, you've got alot to learn about economics, ive been doing it for 2 decades"
"Ooo theirs people disagreeing with you, Im going to be a sheep and do the same thing"
3 Justifications
Edit: Why it is a bad idea by me
Edited by dylan at 19:35, 19th Sep
Now I just need to find out which Track King user wrote this article?
Reason #2 is the US healthcare system.
Reason #3 is Blackwater.
Reasons 2 and 3 I think point towards the reasonable limits of the private sector. The lessons seem quite obvious at this point, I think, if only we will heed them.
Reading 27 Economics Textbooks that was published by 27 Professors with 27 Doctorates still does not make you have suffecient knowledge.
Because I can't be arsed arguing this with you dylan, I'll point out that you can read through that very part that i wrote that you decided to quote.
I do believe that I distinctly said that I am continually learning, and never said that I have sufficient knowledge, at least not to proclaim myself to be an expert on the matter.
However, I'll reiterate, I know more about this that you. Based on previous things I have seen Iddi write, I'll put money on him knowing more about this than you.
You were making a whole bunch of general statements that pretty much said that privatisation prevents inefficiencies. I have an issue with this idea, because this would require a very limited view on what you deem to be an efficiency. You could take it to a process level, an entity level, a societal level, hell you could pretty much look at it from any aspect you want. The key part of this concept is that an efficiency requirement for one area, might be completely redundant for another.
But what would I know, all I have done is read from 27 professors with 27 doctorates. Of course, last time I looked, a doctorate in most countries confers upon you the title of a Doctor, not a Professor, and depending where you come from, the idea of a Professor has a wide variety of applications, not necessarily requiring a doctorate, or something of a similar nature, to have been undertaken. But again, I am sure your extensive knowledge base would already know that.
Edited by Gaalaa at 11:27, 20th Sep
"Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."
According to McCain, adopting an even more free market approach to healthcare, as was done in banking, will cause the healthcare sector to perform as well as the financial sector!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nuff said.
I came across this on Paul Krugman's blog to give credit where credit is due.
BTW in case anyone missed it, it has been publicly revealed that Ben Bernanke briefed Congress on Thursday night and informed them that we were days away from complete global financial meltdown.
Here is a quote from a piece written by John McCain:
"Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would
provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation."
According to McCain, adopting an even more free market approach to healthcare, as was done in banking, will cause the healthcare sector to
perform as well as the financial sector!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nuff said.
I came across this on Paul Krugman's blog to give credit where credit is due.
BTW in case anyone missed it, it has been publicly revealed that Ben Bernanke briefed Congress on Thursday night and informed them that we were
days away from complete global financial meltdown.
John McCain
your not taking on what he says are you?
American Citizens: "Learn to swim."
In one of the more stunning developments to come down the pike in some time the US government responded to its citizens by rejecting the bailout. Many outlets have tried to pin the failure on this or that political squabble but you can't ignore the fact that almost every congressperson that vote against is in a district where thier seat is not assured. There was a massive citizen outpouring that stopped it, actual democracy in action. I've spent the last week fighting it myself and it is rather thrilling to have something go right for once with the government.
Of course it looks like they are going to try this turkey again this week so I urge all US citizens that read this to contact your Senators and Representative. Call, email, and fax. It really can work if you put enough pressure on them.
Don't listen to fearmongering. They say we will have recession if we don't do the bailout. We are already in recession and it is going to get worse bailout or no. The bailout will simply flush money down a hole that could be used for productive investment. They will spend over a trillion dollars and not create 1 job--puhlease. It's time to boo these clowns off the stage and demand some real leadership. Torpedo this plan and build a new one from the ground up that focuses on the people. We cannot have economic recovery without good jobs and decent incomes. Throwing money at Wall Street's toxic mess does not help.
I agree though, it is fantastic that this happened just before an election, and they need to listen to the people instead fo shafting them.
What I would like to see is the US government use that same money that they have identified to lend to people who want to build things, and work their way out of the infrastructure. Imagine if that cash was used to create things that created jobs for people. That't be useful, and brilliant.
As your economy works slighly more diversified than ours, you have the manufacturing industry running in tandem with your banking. we dont. Whatever happens in our banking system affects the main streets within a few days. not weeks as in USA.
Each time the US cocks up and has another banking crisis, its other countries that pay for the instablility of it.
go ahead and have your mini revolutions, dont mind the rest of us that get to pay the price for it. Already some of the economies worldwide are starting to crash as again the idiot American congress decided to play politics instead of considering how their decisions affect others.
The uk had its worst opening at the stock market for SIXTY YEARS this morning. And doesnt look like recouping fast.
Edited by Talisman at 07:10, 30th Sep
While they cocked up, it is our fault for doing what they want and ask. To use a car crash analogy, if a car suddenly brakes, and the car behind it rear ends them, if the third one back does the same, perhaps he shouldn't have been following so closely either.
Edited by mod-fossunited at 07:51, 30th Sep
Furthermore it is quite likely that the problems cannot be papered over and that money spent on the bailout will be flat out wasted. At best it will temporarily prop up a system that is rotten to the core and lead to a larger meltdown later. The most simple possible statement of the problem is, I think, that there is more debt than can possibly be repaid. There are over $500 trillion of unregulated derivatives that these criminals have been trading. At some point the debt must be destroyed. Even the gigantic US balance sheet cannot absorb all the problems. Even to try squanders precious resources that could be put to productive work.
We need health care, education, infrastructure, and good jobs. Those things drive real and sustainable economic activity. We have lost a decade economically here in the US. We exported much of our productive capacity and tried to replace it by selling houses back and forth to each other and figuring out the best way to install $10,000 granite countertops. Turns out that is not a sustainable economy. We must reverse course, not waste money propping up a broken system.
The last bargaining chips they have for the bailout are that the stock market will drop and that there will be a recession. People need to realize that those things will happen anyway, so let's grit our teeth and bear it, and push for the reforms we really need. The economic numbers that the government puts out are so badly cooked that they are meaningless. We already have a recession and real unemployment is ]10%. Much of the earnings in the stock market in the last 10 years are illusory. They are threatening us with things that have already come to pass.
Cross continent ownership affects us all in one way or another, case in point is that HBOS affair affecting the australian banks. as they were partly owned by the british bank.
Same goes here, everyone got their fingers in each others pots, and unless that USA banking is shored up fast its the rest of us that will take the flak for them screwing up on the sub-prime markets.
Once again the USA nose dives into something and other economies suffer while they sit pretty, yes they will bail them out, but if they had done that weeks ago instead of etting things get as bad as they are this wouldnt be such a huge issue now.
Already today prices have already gone up in our local shops. And thats just hours after the stock markets opened this morning.
America fabricates 'evidence' to go to war to boost their munitions profiteering, and the rest of us has to sit back while the oil prices pay for their arrogance again.
America screws up on their banking, again their arrogance in not taking into account how it affects global markets will leave the rest of us with the backlash while their fatcats rake in the profits later from their own recovering markets while ours will take a decade to recover again.
Its about time those Americans stopped thinking of themselves all the time and their profit margins and actually consider that others live on this world also, and thier idiotic politics and profiteering at others expence, leaving those that try get on with their lives in the mire once again.
The only reason there was even an iraq war was that he had to go finish what his father started. Daddy probably found the fabricated evidence for them.
I am starting to think that the package should not be approved despite the likely knock on effects to other economies and other sectors of the US economy. Surely, looking at the long term, the arrogance of these financial market God-fathers will reach new heights if the safety net is set up under them and can only lead to the same mistakes happening again in the future.
Why should all Americans pay when things go wrong, but only the special few gain when things go well (massive profits)? Why should the Government intervene here and not intervene to to help a citizen with an unpayable credit card debt? Think about it - perhaps it's a question of morals and doing the right thing than money (for once).
One persons credit card bill wont affect global economies and turn countries inside out. And yes there are already safety nets in place for them. Its called debt managment systems.
Sorry but I resent the fact that we wont be able to afford to heat our home this winter because the American economic sector decides to screw people over once again and the politicians will be nice and warm in their penthouses while I'm sat here freezing with a blanket round me once again.
So what if they have to shore up the economy, it wont be the first time a country has had to do it, and it definatly wont be the last. In the meantime I'd like to think that another few thousand pensioners and disabled in this country wont die from freezing to death this winter not being able to afford to put the heater on.
I really dont care about the USA moral stance on their bankers when it directly affects me thousands of miles away.
You mean the one with his fathers hand firmly up his backside? Puppet president with a puppet master.
The only reason there was even an iraq war was that he had to go finish what his father started. Daddy probably found the fabricated
evidence for them.
I honestly don't think this is the case. Bush the Greater was far, far more competent a president than Bush the Lesser. I think the elder may actually be somewhat ashamed. Yeah they are father and son and have all the same dirty money connections and all that. Look at the differences though. Bush the Greater was never a true believer in supply-side economics and even consented to raise taxes when he realized it was absolutely necessary. And it is true that he fought a war to protect oil supplies, but he did it fast, cheap, with almost no casualties, and with an exit plan. He declined to invade Iraq because he knew what a disaster it would be. American public opinion favored invading Iraq to remove Saddam at that time and elder Bush paid a price politically for not doing it.
Now, that pretty much exhausts every good thing there is to say about him. Still, it seems plenty to make him a much better president than his son and unlikely to be one of those pulling the strings behind the scenes.
Just my take though.
Edit: On the actual issue of heating homes, the global recession will bring energy prices down. Trying to reinflate the broken system, if successful, will send energy prices soaring again.
Edited by iddi420 at 12:39, 30th Sep
Its not really possible to split the global economies though foss. Stock markets run on global banking, so doesnt really matter which of the economies crash, it will inevitably affect them all.
I agree, but I am not jsut talking about banking. basically, countries do what america tells them too, and if they don't they get threatened. Most countries used to control business to a lesser extent, but the US didn't and told everyone else that it was bad. So we copied them.
They go into war and say to the rest you are either with us or against us. So they go and help (but not so much any more, and then look at what happens to them). NZ wouldn't allow some kind of strange Nuclear trade thing with India, so the PM gets a call from Dubya which apparently threatened her to agree. Prick.
WTO, they did well there getting their fingers in the pie. Kyoto protocol, who needs to save the planet when we can make money at it's expense - enough to buy a new planet.
Basically, everything that is crap in society is due to the US and religion (in some cases both) yet we still have to put up with the 'We're america and we are the greatest' brigade.
For years I've been wishing that every other country would just say to America, screw you, we don't need you, and trade with each other and ignore them. Lets see how their protectionist tarriffs work when nobody actually wants to sell them things. Lets see if the middle east stops selling them oil what would happen. they can't invade the whole world.
But they didn't. Instead, they did what america said, and look where we ended up. I actually feel relief at this massive global recession. My workmates tell me not to joke and laugh about it, but I have been waiting so long to be proved right. Unsustainable policies were allowed, and eventually they came and bit them on the bum. Sure, the rest of us are suffering too, but perhaps now they'll learn their lessons.
Big winners - russia and China. Hands down. Watch as russia take back a few of their old countries over the next 3-4 years. Hitler did exactly the same thing, waited until the other major powers were weak and then took things, knowing that they would just give up.
What annoys me so much is that online, most clever people in the US have known it is a problem for a long time, but the muppets who struggle to use their opposable thumbs correctly elect an absolute idiot in based on policies such as abortion and gun rights. Sure, i admit that they might not understand deeper social-economic policy, but I think my 4yo probably realises that an imaginary man and the ability to own a loud stick are not that important in the grand scheme of things.
What annoys me so much is that online, most clever people in the US have known it is a problem for a long time, but the muppets who struggle to use their opposable thumbs correctly elect an absolute idiot in based on policies such as abortion and gun rights.
Foss, did you ever see the episode of South Park where Cartman travels back in time to see what the founding fathers would think of the Iraq War? He discovers that the founding principle of the US is: "we'll just say one thing, and do another."
Let me say again that if you are a US citizen please call and email your 2 Senators and 1 Representative as much as you can tonight and tomorrow. You can find them at senate.gov and house.gov. Make it clear that you will not only vote against them, but work for their opponent's campaign if they allow the Bush administration to loot the Treasury on the way out of office. Kill the Paulson Plan. Start over with something that makes sense and is accountable to tax payers.
Now spewing i changed from balanced to high grow last year

Buying up the bank debts, stabalising the economy somewhat and getting things back on track will in the long run make those buy-ups profitable when either collected on or sold back to the banks at a later date.
The people who have been warning of this economic collapse for more than a year say this is a waste of money. At this point I think we have to give more credence to the people who successfully forecast our current predicament. Sure we could choose to believe the people who gave us the Iraq War, Patriot Act, and the current economic crisis. But given their track record I'm not buying.
In fact, their plan cannot work unless they overpay for the "assets." If they pay market value nothing changes. So we are pretty much gauranteed a loss. If it fends off full blown depression I suppose it will be worth it. There is no gaurantee of that however. In fact I'm begining to suspect that Congress knows we are likely to experience it anyway and are voting for this measure so that when it happens they can't be blamed for causing it by not voting for the bailout. I mean what constitutes a depression exactly? The government economic numbers are so cooked that they say we are not even in recession right now. I call BS. We have been in recession for at least 3 quarters now. Real unemployment is greater than 10%. Incomes for the middle class and lower have been declining for years. We are now, I think, clearly on the back side of peak credit. Lending will never again (or at least until everyone who lives through this is dead) be as loose as the last decade. There are $500 trillion (trillion not billion) in unregulated derivatives floating around. Even the US balance sheet is powerless against a number like $500 trillion.
For the record I still oppose the bailout and it wouldn't hurt to bang your congress critter's cage a little before the house vote if you are a US citzen opposed to wasting $700 billion. Everyone in the House of Representatives is up for reelection so it may still be possible to scare them straight. The house.gov website is still crashing intermittently so it looks like the grassroots have not given up yet.
The stock market made new lows on the passage. In fact, we closed lower than when the bailout was rejected. I'm putting an 860 target on the S&P 500. Closed at 1099 today. Don't invest on that of course, it is a prediction for entertainment purposes only.
I still say it would have made better sense to reloan the people the cash at a more reasonable rate, using that same cash, but watching all the investment banks crumble.
I would have forced the owners to sell, then relend them their house at the lower value, and laugh my butt off.
Oh, and then apply retrospective laws to take all the cash back.
These hidden derivatives are the most interesting though, because in theory for one person to gain, another must lose. So somewhere, if everyone is losing, someone else is making some insane gains.
because in theory for one person to gain, another must lose. So somewhere, if everyone is losing, someone else is making some insane gains.
Not necessarily. Say for example that I have a piece of paper that I value at £100k (eg Adam Smith's autograph, a rare banknote or a certificate of deposit) and a lot of experts agree that that is a fair valuation. I can then list that piece of paper as an asset worth £100k on my balance sheet.
If the market in that particular piece of paper then collapses (maybe Adam Smith becomes unfashionable) I might only be able to value that piece of paper at £1k on my next balance sheet. My Profit and Loss account would then show that I have made a £99k loss. Nobody has gained or lost any actual cash but my net worth has fallen.
This might seem irrelevant but it does have real life implications. If I used that piece of paper as security for a £50k business overdraft, then the bank is going to get very nervous and may cancel my overdraft facility. That could result in business closure and unemployment for me and any staff.
Edited by hatless at 15:26, 05th Oct
Even then though, that means someone elses balance sheet is likely to be worse than it actually is isn't it?
These hidden derivatives are the most interesting though, because in theory for one person to gain, another must lose. So somewhere, if everyone is losing, someone else is making some insane gains.
I think this is true of the derivatives. However, the problem seems to be that the losers of these bets can't pay off, since as unregulated securities no one forced any capital requirements relative to the bets. Trillions and trillions in bets with no money held back to cover the potential losses. It is especially infuriating that these are obligations made up out of thin air for no reason other than to allow unregulated gambling.
It needs to be better reported that the person most responsible for this is Phil Gramm, co-chair of the McCain campaign and a likely choice for treasury secrectary in a McCain administration. He slipped unregulated derivatives into a spending bill when he was in congress. He's the same guy who said America has become a nation of whiners, and that we are experiencing only a mental recession. He also was the person most responsible for deregulating the energy trading market which allowed the Enron fiasco. And, oh yeah, his wife was on the board of Enron at the time.
As for the guy responsible. *start sarcasm mode: really? I didn't expect that. I would have thought that a guy backing the republican nomination would have been cleaner than clean.
how they insured buyers of bad debts without calling it insurance....they called it swaps, to avoid regulation, which would have meant they would have had to set aside money to make good on these "swaps" transactions.
it was pretty enlightening and explained a great deal to me.....did anyone see the dow plunge today? there is no faith at all in the market anymore, after that show aired......im glad i got out in time.....tho the different currencies i now hold may indeed be only good for starting fires in the fire place someday.
I love how Gordon brown backed the idea, like he knows what is going on. All he does know is that is someone else forks out the cash, he doesn't have to. About the only clever thing he has done since this time last year.
well Australia has just preceded the WORLD today by slashing interest rates by a full 1%.
You state that like they are the greatest thing in the world for doing so. Don't forget, Australia and New zealand has some of the highest interest rates in the developed world, and Australia has been increasing them by 25 basis points a quarter recently. If anything, this is just correcting a cockup.
But whilst I believe they should, their astute management and general lending practices has seen our banks solid as a rock. Billion dollar profits per year has seen our big 4 banks 4 of only 18 banks in the world with a AA + or better credit rating. Just watch the rest of the world now deposit there hard earned with our banks making them bigger and stronger.
Puh-lease - the Australian banks have made their money by shafting the general public left right and centre for the past 10 years, with a government that was unwilling to stop them. NZ is exactly the same, except you guys own our banks. Australia and NZ have some of the most excessive levels of 'service fees' in the world, which bolster the coffers of the banks. If you call that astute management you are absolutely dreaming. It is corporate theft which nobody wants to regulate against, moreso now because it would lead to the collapse of a couple of them, because they quite enjoy taking the 30% more tax off them.
As for lending, they have followed exactly the same principles as every other country, allowing people to overextend themselves as much as the next country. You seem to think that making your banks bigger and stronger is a good thing. Give them more power and you will get shafted more.
Unless of course you are one of the key shareholders, or in upper management, but I am going to take a calculated guess and say that you are not. In which case, you will pay even more in the long run.
Billion dollar profits per year has seen our big 4 banks 4 of only 18 banks in the world with a AA + or better credit rating. Just watch the rest of the world now deposit there hard earned with our banks making them bigger and stronger.
Are you sure it isn't just that yours haven't blown up yet? I must admit that I really don't know Australian banks very well, so I don't know. We will find out shortly.
There is talk of interest rate cuts all over the world and that is part of the strength in the dollar. One line of thinking is that the US already got our rate cuts out of the way with the dramatic cuts of the last year and the rest of the world will now follow suit, thus hurting their currencies and supporting the dollar. Now there is talk of more cuts here. It would be pointless now, since there really are no liquidity problems. The issue is solvency. Central banks can pump cash into banks with both fists and it won't help, there just are not very many credit worthy people and institutions who want to borrow. The system is proving very resistant to reinflation at the moment.
Perhaps if we all recite the central bank mantra together: "To credit--the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems."
i cant give this house away here in Louisiana, try tho i might.
Well, we got our coordinated interest rate cut. Half a point for everyone. As I said in a previous post though, I doubt it will change the picture at all. In fact, it seems to be tough getting even a short term rally going and I have rarely seen a market so ready for a rally. I'm keeping my 860 S&P 500 target in place, but would expect a rally beforehand. If we crash straight to it...well, I don't know what, but it would be pretty shocking.
Either way, my net worth is suddenly about 8-10% higher. Which makes me worth about $100 right now. Lovely.
that change you have there, is either really bad, or really good, depending on your circumstances.
The reporter on TV at the Stock Exchange today was telling us how the dollar had plummeted today to close at R$2.17 when you could clearly see on the wall graphs behing her that it was now at 2,39 - all that change in 40 minutes or so!!
Lula is being arrogant as usual saying that Brasil will be ok - wouldn't be the first time he got it totally wrong.
the govt. said "Come on, come on, pass this bill, we need 700 billion NOW to bail 'em out..." after the bill failed the first time.
So now the bill has passed, and Washington still hasn't handed out a dime...so Wall Street is getting everything they can out of the market, and theyre doing exactly what i already did....moving the money to Europe......
there will be no bottom in this U]S] market. we're headiing for a crash....and the reason for that is our two choices for presidents.
one is political moron, and the other is a political child.
better pack your rags, cash out, and send your money to credit suisse, America.
or you'll be standing in breadlines....and forget about those social security and disability checks....because after wall street crashes, so will the government.
one is political moron, and the other is a political child.
You might be right here too but either is better than Bush. That man is a disgrace to humanity, never mind a disgrace to the US.
My parents lost $20k just today 'cuz of the market. And that's prob'ly a drop in the bucket compared to everyone else...our area's been kinda "recession-proof" (or so everyone around here's been saying), but now...who knows. It's scary
On the politcal side, I think it is important to vote dem this time. I'm not a dem, I've never voted dem before except the last mid-term elections. The repubs have established a very powerful political machine that is now corrupt to the core. That machine must be destroyed. Even if you like what they used to stand for, they need to be soundly defeated to force them to rebuild with some fresh ideas and less corrupted pols.
Plus, there's the fact that they got 6 years of controling the legislative and exucutive branches and managed to break the whole damn world in that short span.
Where is he?
Get this, I just heard that President Bush is planning an address to reassure the country.
That is likely to make things worse, I'm surprised they don't realize
that by now. They have come out and lied and said everything is fine all the way down. People take them as a contrary indicator now.
HERE'S THE GOOD NEWS FOR AMERICAN TRACK KING CUSTOMERS SO PAY ATTENTION.
The first time I bought OC, i paid $11.32 US$ for 12.50 AUS $. The second time it was $11.48 US $ for $12.50. that was about three months ago, if i remember correctly.
and then i bought the 40 $ thing and i dont remember what that was....i know it was pretty low...
and now, with the tumbling of the australian dollar on the aussie markets today, i can't give you an exact figure, since it's constantly changing every minute on the channel i'm watching, but if you're an american and youre thinking of purchasing OC NOW IS THE TIME TO DO IT......
i think with the rate i'm reading at this precise moment, for every $12.50 AUS $, you will be paying about 10.68 US
$, which is an extraodinary savings....
god i wish i had seen this coming....i would have waited. i have OC until well into 2010, so im here for the long haul, but this rate is very hard to pass up, my fellow Americans.
if youre even remotely thinking about purchasing it, DO IT NOW.
you can click on the shop and check out the rate and see precisely what it is at any moment (I think).
this goes for anything at all theyre selling in the shop--OC, T-shirts, naming credits....
i dont know if you're ever going to see a rate much better than this.
you guys know me...i dont go around plugging things unless i really believe it, but this is extraordinary what we're seeing today.....
my name is NOT Sarah Palin, but I am a soccer mom, and I approve this post.
Edited by chopchop at 21:49, 09th Oct
Edited by chopchop at 21:51, 09th Oct
Edited by chopchop at 21:56, 09th Oct
As for not commenting, I was asleep. But I pretty much agree with everything that was said. Bush is a disgrace to Darwinism. If you vote Republican you are an idiot (in fact if you only ever vote for one party becuase that is what you do you are an idiot, but thats a whole new story)
I am worht more money = happy Foss. Friends are now struggling = not happy Foss. Right wing party dominating support in NZ, makes their tax cuts announcements which screw the poor for the rich and their support drops significantly = extremely happy Foss. Numpties.
wait wait wait, buy shares when the market is
lower still, then sit n wait for it all to come back
Aye, that's my plan. I'm 23 and currently have zero investments... but that will change once the market bottoms out. I have 40 years to get a return on it.
The only problem with that thinking is being able to hang onto a job if/when the crash hits properly.
If the noodles hits the fan, its usually the younger and the older who are shown the door first and re-hired last.
Edited by mod-gopher27 at 03:42, 11th Oct
Edited by mod-gopher27 at 03:42, 11th Oct
in 87, when this happened, a lot of young people got rich buying cheap, but Reagan was president then and there was no government interference, he let the markets correct themselves....of course he didnt have the sub prime mess to deal with, nor the credit default swaps...that's the big thing now that makes this different from '87.
.....and when the Dow hit 7K right before the Iraq war, that was a good time to buy too.
actually, if a market is low right before a war, that's always a good time to buy....rich get richer, and poor die.....it's just the way it's always been.
war = good for economy, for a while at least....unless of course your country is throwing $100 Billion a year into a war in a country (Iraq) that has an $80B surplus on the books.
but the trick is either knowing when to cash out, or if you're your age then there's no need to worry, for about 45 more years.....that's assuming we still have a planet then......
Edited by chopchop at 03:32, 11th Oct
On the horror show side of things, if we got a total decline of the magnitude of the total decline in the Great Depression, that would leave the S&P at 157 and the Dow at 1400. I'm not calling for that, but it is a scary thought.
Chop, on the war good for the economy issue, I think it was true of WWII because of the massive employment it created. 16 million men under arms plus everbody else put to work to supply them. Now the profits of war go mainly to the stakeholders of the military suppliers. Plus there are no wars. We won two wars several years ago and have conducted disastrous occupations since then.
Edited by iddi420 at 06:44, 11th Oct
Now the of the military suppliers. Plus there are no wars. We won two wars several years ago and have
conducted disastrous occupations since then.
Edited by iddi420 at 06:44, 11th Oct
We really need to appreciate this sentiment...good, yet sad post iddi
well, i feel reasonably safe in my employment. im a nurse, i work for the government in public health sector, and hey, ppl will always get sick, and there is a worldwide shortage of nurses.
Don't be too confident. I don't know what happened in the rest of the world, but during the '70s recession, government healthcare spending was cut. Admittedly the UK was a basket case at the time and it has only happened once. But that doesn't mean that it will never happen anywhere else.
Just because there is a never-ending supply of sick people, that does not mean that there is a never-ending supply of people who are able to pay taxes.
Edited by hatless at 14:14, 11th Oct
Cuts in services such as theatre, obstetrics, aged care, bed availability etc etc etc already detrimentally affect nurse staffing levels in Australia.
Health budgets must be adhered to mwahahahaaaaa !
On the global economic outlook, I think props are in order to the UK for moving ahead with a plan that makes much more sense than the Paulson "Welfare for Wall Street" plan. So much more, in fact, that it appears Paulson is now going to copy that plan instead of using his original plan. Luckily he has authority to do it, since some dems in congress inserted it into the bailout bill despite Paulson's objections. I'm not betting on a bottom or that we are out of the woods--far from it I think. In fact these emergency measures are going to have bad consequences of their own. However, we at least are attacking it with some more rational policies that don't tilt as heavily in the direction of rewarding people who should be punished.
They are talking about whether executives should be required to take a pay cut. They should be talking about how many years in prison they get, not how much money.
Yeah Foss, I think that is would be the claim. Work the nurses harder and harder till they begin to make more
mistakes and kill patients. Opens up hospital beds, reduces labor costs, and ta-da, we have efficiency. So many people seem to gloss
right over the fact that perhaps efficiency should not be the primary goal of healthcare. Certainly it must be considered, but not to
the exclusion of all other principles.
I feel that Dylan is sure to make a comment in here somewhere soon.
(Oh and I agree on the prison thing. Over here, Gordon Brown said that the execs are going to get punished for what they have done. I took this to mean punishing them, apparently it means that they won't get as high a bonus in the future!!! WTF? That isn't a punishment, they already throw banknotes on their beds at night and roll in it before going to sleep at night*)
*this is an assumption, based on what I would do if I had all that money.
They have changed a lot in practical things, patient handover is different, instead of the early morning staff meating that takes an hour for all the nurses coming on duty to go through each file. Taking all the nurses off the ward for a while during handover. The now do it by a recorded individual patient message system.
Each patient nurse leaves a full summary of treatment and what is going on etc on a recording. Recordings are later sent to an office for printing off to put into patients file.
Nurses coming on duty listen to the recording, takes 5 mins and they are up to date on exactly what is going on with each patient. done. They can also go back at any time within the next 12 hours and listen to the recording again untill its filed.
Super efficient, saves a huge chunk of time for the nurses and loads less paperwork for them to deal with also. Leaves them to be able to do their job instead of flicking papers all day. The nurses love the system, give them more time to chat with patients also and they not running round all day like headless chickens trying to recheck info.
I cant fault even one of the nurses or cleaning staff on the ward I was on. One of the cleaners even insisted on standing and waiting while I cleaned my teeth 'just in case' I needed help.
I don't hold it against them too much though, considering their numbers of midwives is so low. Fortunately it was our second child, and in NZ they have birthing centres, so my wife already knew a lot.
The hospital was full, and the next closest 30 mins away was full, yet in order to create efficiency they were planning on closing our one and merging it with the other one. So fit twice as many people into half the space with half the staff. Hmmmm... and this was a good trust.
Hmmm... perhaps you are fortunate. We live in one of the best NHS trust areas, and when my wife gave birth they
didn't bring her breakfast, didn't come to check on her once, didn't check to see if she was feeding the baby etc.
Exactly the same thing happened to my wife and she had an emergency ceasarian, they had some trainee midwives but even they weren't going to get a job there when they finished their training.
The only one who came to see her on the 2nd day was the one to check the babies hearing etc.She checked out after that and even then a doctor said he had to see her before she left(to check the wound), but after waiting 2 hourse the midwife phoned him to see when he would be coming and his reply was"oh,i'm sure it will be ok just let her go".
Edited by mod-gopher27 at 12:03, 13th Oct
Saying that, They are currently building us a new local hospital in our town, which is replacing a old wartime one that is used as a geriatric hospice now.
Maybe we just lucky in this area at the moment, our big hospital which is 20 mins away from us and recently rebuilt is getting foundation hospital status now, The local univesity is doing medical training and they are linking into the big new hospital. Loads of student nurses and doctors on site most of the time and quite a few 'centres of excellence' popping up in the different departments here.
It may have been possible that I was on 'special watch' when I was in though due to my disability also, I was in a private room right accross from the nurses station so was pretty much within talking distance when the door was open. But from what I seen on the wards around me those nurses look a hell of a lot more relaxed and less harrased than what I was used to seing.
You went on a ward then and they did what they could for a while then sent you home. Now with all the new breakthroughs there are so many different departments etc, mostly specialising in certain things, that it cost a fortune to keep them running to treat the patients that benifit from them.
Our increasing longevity doesn't only adversely affect health care but is a risk to the planet as the environment suffers more and more as a result (but that's another story).
Nor does longevity affect environment - the environment is more a result of total world population - which has more to do with religion and poverty than with longevity.
Nor does longevity affect environment - the environment is more a result of total world population - which has more to do with religion and poverty than with longevity.
Doesn't longevity result in a higher population if compared to a period where people died earlier?
And poverty tends to lower life expectancy rates, so perhaps that we should be pushing to make people poorer, not richer.
As for the religion, I think that isn't a direct link to increased population. Some religions do promote large families, bt is isn't really a guiding factor.
Population increases are generally a result of lack of knowledge or understanding, mixed witha need to survive the elements. there are generally higher populations in areas where there is a larger risk of death during childhood. If the odds are twice as great of your child dying, then you will generally produce twice as many children so that the end result is the same. However, due to the onset of globalisation, colonisations etc, this approach used to work, whereas now there are greater influences preventing early death (less wars, improved access to sanitation, medicines etc). But, the general mindset to change takes a lot longer so the population survival rate has increased without a change in the mindset to ensure that we don't overpopulate.
At least, that is my opinion.
What a load of crap. We are living longer because we are healthier, as a result of advances in sanitation and
medicine. The time you spend ill is not a factor of your life expectancy - it is a factor of your genetics and lifestyle.
Nor does longevity affect environment - the environment is more a result of total world population - which has more to do with
religion and poverty than with longevity.
Back in the 17th century the life expectancy for a male was aroung 45 years. Not sure what it is now but many people live to 80. Is someone then or now going to spend more days during their life time in a hospital on average?
So people living longer does not increase world population?
You're the one spouting crap, mate.
There is only one reason for population growth. That is, people are being born at a faster rate than they are dying.
Lets all stop being silly.
There is only one reason for population growth. That is, people are being born at a faster rate than they are dying.
Or eaten. I blame the extinction of the wild animals.
--------------------------------
Lets all stop being silly.
There is only one reason for population growth. That is, people are being born at a faster rate than they are dying.
--------------------------------
Or eaten. I blame the extinction of the wild animals.
and the decline in cannibalism?
and the decline in cannibalism?
They opened a WalMart in the middle of the Amazon.
and the decline in cannibalism?
No. I believe the decline in cannibalism is not a factor. If you are not going to eat your children then there is less incentive to breed them.
Too true. but you wouldn't eat your own children. You'd have to trade them for someone elses surely.
http://art-bin.com/art/omodest.html
a summary please?

I grant this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children.
Infant's flesh will be in season throughout the year, but more plentiful in March, and a little before and after; for we are told by a grave author, an eminent French physician, that fish being a prolific diet, there are more children born in Roman Catholic countries about nine months after Lent than at any other season; therefore, reckoning a year after Lent, the markets will be more glutted than usual, because the number of popish infants is at least three to one in this kingdom: and therefore it will have one other collateral advantage, by lessening the number of papists among us.
I think the idea of the government at the time was to take all irish children under 2 and forcibly put them into foster homes in england, so Swift said, why bother, just eat them, I'm sure the mothers would fatten them up for you.
wiki entry
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal
Edited by Talisman at 11:30, 15th Oct
EDITED for goph. was meant to edit earlier but wouldn't let me access it. Ah well. Great minds goph.
Edited by Mod-fossunited at 14:33, 15th Oct
I do not think that reflects well on football fans.
Yeah agreed, but this is after all the sport of kings. Actually, so was football lol. was invented in china and one of their kings layed down the rules after too many were getting hurt.
On a football site they are expected to be course and uncival, so they act it. probably find a load of teachers, lawyers etc in there also.
A non-football fan would begin a phone conversation like this:
"Good afternoon. I saw a photograph on page 17 of yesterday's newspaper. Is it possible to buy a copy?"
Talking with a football fan would go like this:
Fan: Umm. Emm. It's aboot ee phoatee - eh wan in eh pepper. (It's about the photograph - the one in the newspaper)
Me: Would that be a photo from the football section?
Fan: Aye. How'd ye ken?
Me: Just a guess.

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