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AzezalHeat

Week 14 - Race 18 - £10,000 Longchamp Nursery (R)

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Posts: 16

(05/04/08 5:36 AM)

Alipne Express - 7f surely too far for this decent sprinter and with the welter burden of top weight, will start to struggle at the 2f pole. Will likely be in the front rank early and will set it up for some of the late finishers.

T Shirt Sun Tan - Cracking debut effort and some decent runs afterwards. However, will find it tough on this mark in nurseries and susceptible to an improving type. May still put up a bold show here though.

Hazy Club - Ignore latest over a trip too far and cavalier jockey tactics. Only 1lb lower than when 7th of 23 in a Redcar nursery and although handicapper looks to have the measure here, this is a weak nursery and likely to be thereabouts at business end.

Rhein Lady - Really needs a bit of juice in the ground to show best colours. Cavalier jockeyship backfired last time and needs to leave recent form well behind here.

Beat Hollow - First attempt at Nursery company and in with a tough mark but 2 decent efforts give hope here. May just be crying out for a little bit more toe in the ground though.

Dorothy Perkins - Decent effort in an average maiden on only run to date. Conditions spot on today and should improve to be a contender here. Likely the one they have to beat.

Strike Diamonds - A pound better off with Dorothy Perkins for a length and likely to be pushing Dorothy at the business end of things.

Echo Beach - 2 lengths behind Alipne Express on levels last time and now receiving 9lb. Should theoretically reverse, but ground is not suitable and likely to struggle in todays conditions.

Silver Shower - Very hard to make a case here. On a 4lb higher mark than in a similar conditions race as today in her last nursery start. That was a poor effort and needs to find a lot.

Elks - Back to Nurseries after some below par efforts. However, still plenty to find on todays high mark.

Super Swann - Only dropped 1lb for latest poor nursery showing and will find this too hot on this mark.

Mag - No kind of show on any run so far and well exposed here on still too high a mark.

Promotion - This 7th and final furlong will stretch every sinue and muscle to its limits but on recent display, has to be bang in contention if staying the extra yardage.

Rolly Polly - Now on a career high mark for some very below par runs and handicapper has done no favours to his chances here. Surely has little chance in a race also too short.

Gaping Chasm - Powered away from gates in only start but ended up well out the back. Highly tried debut effort and in more realistic company today. With a better ride, may have a say on a low weight.

Janoueix - Well tailed off on only start. Likely to bring up rear with Mobasher today.

They Call Me Horse - Certainly on a better mark than some of his recent rivals who re-oppose today and in improved performance should be on cards and may just challenge for one of the minor places.

Candy Girl - On a very attractive mark today and should put up a bold showing here. Will be sitting mid division and will pounce late to attempt to share the spoils.

Mobasher - Yet to beat a rival home and likely to suffer same outcome today.

Summary

A very average nursery and only a few with realistic chances here. T Shirt Sun Tan, Hazy Club and Beat Hollow will have their support, however, unexposed horses Dorothy Perkins and Strike Diamonds could fight each other for the honours here if improving on debut performances. A bold showing is expected from They Call Me Horse, but the two likelier types on low marks here are Promotion and Candy Girl. For pure value, it could be well worth siding with Candy Girl here who has everything in her favour on a very attractive mark.

1st : Candy Girl 2nd: Dorothy Perkins 3rd: Strike Diamonds 4th: Hazy Club

Last Edited By: AzezalHeat 05/04/08 5:43 AM. Edited 1 times.

kniesh

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Posts: 21

(05/04/08 5:37 AM)

Race 21

Creme De La da-Second in similar race over 5f in week 11. good chance of getting off the mark here but could just fall short

Glorosia-Poor race but not poor enough for this to get anywhere near the frame. surely an admin error!

The Minstral-No real show of form but wouldn't need much talent to win this, worth considering.

Bodacious Tatas- Been running over further. no real reason for it to stand a chance here, especially on 'gone in a flash' form with the minstral, on its only try over the shorter distances.

Dark Ambition-close form with Creme De La Da over 5f. Should improve for the extra furlong and give a bold show. New trainer who has a habbit for seconds so beware.

Verde- Only one run when trailing in an ordinary maiden. difficult to tell from that although not sure this horse is the answer.

Indian Spark- Possibilities on its only race thus far, certainly if improving for the extra furlong. Strong chance here.

This is only between 3 horses for me. There was nothing between Dark Ambition and creme De La Da when meeting over 5f in a similar race, however preference is for the former of those two with the weights, and the distance falling in its favour. Indian Spark may just have creep in to beat these 2 though.

1st-Indian Spark
2nd-Dark Ambition
3rd-Creme De La Da

kniesh

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Posts: 22

(05/04/08 7:11 AM)

Race 19-Beat the Bookie Arc (restricted)

Cockayne - Never challenged at group level and trip likely to be too far.

Wo Wa - Couple of good efforts at lesser levels but distance and class worries

Party girl - couple of good efforts over this type of distance and this is one for the shortlist. may just find a few too good though.

Enchanted Storm - Generally some solid efforts previously and this one is likely to be making some good late headway.

Cressida - very solid form for this horse and likely to be in the top 6 or so. Chance of running close on Australian derby form but likely to be just short.

Mutuetto Allegretto - Good chance on Duke of Edinburgh and King george form. likely to be coming late and a strong chance of picking these up.

Time Away - Could have limitations at 1m4, but has ability if it can stay this trip. some good form over 1m2.

Cahill - certainly not going to finish last but there is likely to be quite a few too goood for this. will likely be staying on at the end through beaten horses.

Dolf - Has talent but doesn't stand a chance at this distance

Jackeroo - Conditions seem to be in its favour but very tough to have on form.

Derby - Run in the Epsom derby is the best form on offer here. Must have a big chance if it can reproduce that but hasn't shown that kind of ability since despite some solid form still being shown in some top races. may just have too much class for most of these.

Red line - Struggled latest in a maiden and beaten a long way, cant see this troubling the judge.

In the gloaming - Needs big improvement on latest, no real chance here

Keep Quiet - No noises being made for this one. Safe to discount

Kapamilla - Will be hoping for company towards the rear but could end up lonely.

Centennial - Good 5th in a maiden race that could be the key to placings here on only appearance. On that form it has a very good chance of at least a place and wouldn't be surprised to see this first past the post.

jewellery - Not going to be a factor here

Death Today - Could never get into a strong irish champion renewal but will definately improve a lot for the step up to this trip and cant be dicounted if that improvement comes

Pitsibaloo - Held by a few of these on latest run in that good maiden, needs a miracle to verturn them all

Ha larla - First run, best watched

Eat Me Beat Me - First run, best watched

Russian Red - Good run in that Liathroidsneacta maiden on latest and cant be too far from a placing chance here

All I Need - First run, best watched

Summary-- Race littered with horses who just fall short at group level. Derby's form in the Epsom derby is by far the stand out form on show, and if it reproduces that here, it is likely to run very close indeed. A lot of the other principles here ran in the Liathroidsneacta maiden last week and the placings could come from this form-line. Centennial came out on top of those involved that day and looks to have the strongest claims with Minuetto Allegretto tied in closely.

1st---Derby
2nd--Minuetto Algeretto
3rd--Centennial
4th--Death today
5th--Eanchanted storm

AzezalHeat

Week 14 - Race 20 - £200,000 Beat The Bookie Stayers` Race (R)

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Posts: 17

(05/04/08 7:57 AM)

Iron Lung - Stepping back in distance today which should suit. Highest rated horse in race. Ignore latest run on unsuitable ground, although would definately like to see ground dry out a bit more. Has to be on short lists.

Postulate - Two cracking efforts to date and closely matched with Past Tense. Todays shorter distance will play more into the hands of his rival today.

Past Tense - The drop to 15f will be welcomed and should prove ideal and must be favourite to reverse form with Postulate

Brave Bear - Disappointing in St Leger latest but some squeaks of decent form around to give chances here. However will need a bit more rattle in the ground.

Nordic Seas - Promising debut effort in midfield in St Leger and that performance repeated here would give serious chances.

Pommern - Decent effort in handicap company lastest but this extra furlong wont be ideal and her stamina will be put to real test. Midfield expected today.

Hot Hot Love - Very highly rated in handicap but not been in top half of any race to date and will likely struggle against more proven types.

King Of The Bunnies - A lot to find with Postulate and Past Tense on latest run and no guarantees that todays conditions are going to improve chances.

Botecox - Will struggle against rivals with better mileage in formlines and plenty to find in non handicap company.

Hippy Google - Conditions more to the liking and should put up a much improved performance over an extra 4f.

Sea Of Woman - Trip is a little too far today and has more to prove than a few others who have finished in front of her already.

Not Very Subtle - Has favoured conditions today but some 22lb inferior on these terms. Looked over.

Belleoftheball - Bit to find with Iron Lung on Goodwood form but wont be disgraced here. One of the likelier types and some minor prize potential.

Cape Staresy - Will be challenging for rear honours. Completely dismissed and will find the trip way too far.

Tackler Away - Ignore debut run on ground completely unsuitable and too short. Different proposition here today and trainer may feel some prizemoney is going his way here.

Pleasant Pheasant - Very highly tried thus far and will find too many too good today. However, not a complete forlorn hope.

Amazing Skeleton - Thrown in at deep end on debut and only start to date. Needs to find several lengths on some rivals who reoppose here and can be overlooked today.

Lord Admiral - New trainer with only 4 runs to date so far. However a decent 3rd place in those runs so will have to be watched today.

Cruisin For Bruisin - Trainer 0/27 so far this term and unless the stable star, can be dismissed on the law of averages today.

Only a few with chances today. Unexposed trio Nordic Seas, Postulate and Past Tense have good records thus far and should be bang in contention today. There may be more to come from Tackler Away and Lord Admiral will have to be watched from a new improving stable. Iron Lung sets the standard however, would likely want to see a bit more rattle in the ground. Past Tense is the selection as todays conditions should be perfect to reverse formlines with Postulate.

1st: Past Tense 2: Postulate 3: Nordic Seas

AzezalHeat

Week 14 - Race 22 - £10,000 1m5f Handicap (B)

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Posts: 18

(05/04/08 12:38 PM)

Invasor - Tough handicapper whose last race can be ignored due to unsuitable ground. Has to be respected today with perfect conditions.

Returner - Had a lot to find with Invasor last time out on Daxosho Maiden form but make it up he did to run within 1/4 length of Invasor. However, the extra furlong is going to prove troublesome in the stamina department.

Admiralofthefleet - Has a 6lb pull with Invasor on Daxosho Maiden form and most likely to improve and is the one to beat today.

Doomed Minion - 3rd last time out in a very poor banded race and likely to struggle against much better opposition this time around.

Manor Mile - Has been very highly tried so far this campaign and drops right down to banded company on a low weight. May be thereabouts in this company.

Heart Of The City - Not sure how this unraced horse got in this handicap race without a previous run, but trainer is 1 from 80 and on that basis will find it tough here.

Invasor, Returner and Admiralofthefleet are all closely matched on previous formlines, but preference is for the latter who has much more improvement in him and the 6lb pull with Invasor should see Admiralofthefleet through here.

1st: Admiralofthefleet 2nd: Invasor

leecara

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Posts: 379

(05/05/08 7:44 AM)

SOPL Punter's Hall

RACE 3 CAMBRIGESHIRE HANDICAP 1M1F
WORLD WAR - Consistant in lower races been found out to many times in these races
HILL LOW - Struggled so far this season likely to again here
CANT TOUCH THIS - Monster of a horse real talent i wouldnt rule it out even with this weight
CAPE BOOLAROO - Not most consistant horse but talanted down to last winning handicap mark not fo me tho
TWEDDLETASTIC - Another top horse but cant give pads horse 2lb still should be there at the finish
EVER EVER - Has the beating of tweddletastic on eclipse form and recieves weight as well e/w chance
MIGHTY LEADER - Struggled since handicap win back in week 2 had easier races than this to win
RAMRUMA - Has some ability and has lowweight cud suprise
EQUAL - Excellent race latest but has a lot to do of this weight e/w chance at best
MISS FORMICA - Been running well in good races drops to handicaps for first time with winnable mark e/w
QIX - Likely to struggle here got bit to find on balance of form
AUTUMN MOON - Not sure this one see,s out the trip likely to fading near the end
WISHING AGAIN - Thrown in on eclipse form but dissapointed latest if back on song cud win this
PREY - Midfield runner that might move up a few places of this weight top 10 chance
EXCITED - Btn in rest race latest on wrong ground but 2 good efforts b4 that not badly weighted on fav track here
GROW STRONG - Dissapointing type from top yard btn of better weights than this best watched
BAGGAGE - Low grade performer likely to struggle here
DAMN CITY - Low grade performer likely to struggle here
WE WON DALGLIESH - Form looks poor but is better than that cud suprise a few here with a top 5 fin
ALLOCATION - A burke horse of this mark really outta win this but hasnt looked ne thing special
FULL FILL - Low grade performer likely to struggle here
HOLY ROMAN EMPORESS - Looks a stable coup here after soom decent runs over further shortlist material
MR FREEZE - Needs to settle better to figure
MISTER ARTETA - Stables horses are getting better over this trip good debut good chance here
BLUE MOOD - I fancy this at a value price showed up well for long way latest and stable is introducing a few nice types lately

SUMMARY
Typical sopl handicap top horses all carrying big weights poor horses carrying nothing so it cud pay to find the ones in between like
ALLOCATION , WISHING AGAIN, EXCITED , EVER EVER , AND DAMN CITY but we would be foolish to rule out dave and pads horse TWEEDLETASTIC and CANT TOUCH THIS the latter who is a animal over 9 and 10f

PREDICTIONS
1ST WISHING AGAIN 2ND HOLY ROMAN EMPORESS 3RD CANT TOUCH THIS 4TH EXCITED 5TH EVER EVER

Last Edited By: leecara 05/05/08 8:50 AM. Edited 1 times.

leecara

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Posts: 380

(05/05/08 8:10 AM)

SOPL Punter's Hall

RACE 2 THE CHEVELEY PARK STAKES G1 FOR FILLIES 6F
BIG FISH - Excells in these conditions must go close here if settles well
IMPERIAL FLOWER - Nothing to suggest she can win this needs to drop in grade
BLACK POX - Won nice race latest but has to face these on equal weights place chance at best
RIVER CITY - One decent piece of form in nursery but this race is a cut above that not today
LEVIATHON - Has got good c/d form could go well at massive price here
OVER THE HEDGE - Form is starting to tail of now after looking like a star has almost every thing in her favour here tho
ONE OF YOU - Very nice sprinter that maybe better suited to 5f ,no 6f form to suggest she can win but e/w chance still
BARSHIBA - Sprinter with potential should go close here e/w
GREN EGGS AND HAM - Poor by daves standards but still has a decent shout here
ALMA RASTA - Already picked a race but this looks harder for me best watched on return to 6f
NO IDEA - Doesnt look upto this but may finish in top 10
IMAGINE - 7 poor runs 1 outstanding effort seems to have right conditions major chance here
FULLY LOADED - Consistant type who is just under wats requires to win another honest race beckons
KISS THE DICE - Serious horse this been bogged down by weight lately but not here worthy fav
BEE - Well btn on all starts needs drop in grade best watched
OILFIELD - Rogers sprinters have struggled over 6f prob needs 5f to be competitive
CINNAMON - Lovely consistant type will run good race but will be lucky to make the frame
ELEMENTAL WIND - Champ states all bad runs have been on g/f tracks so may struggle here but has the class to win still
COBRA SNAKE - Did well in nunthorpe latest but wont do much here
MESSY HABIT - Likely to find things to fast for her here prob needs more cut in the ground
MINUTE MAKER - Ran as tho crying out for 6f last time was rael eyecatcher that day but this is tougher e/w
SARATOGA - All known form is poor cant have here
MELT STEEL - New trainers horses were well beat last week i expect the same from this one
ITS WALLAZE - Struggled last week and likely to again here no chance for me
TULIP - Struggled over 1m latest needs to improve for drop to 6f

SUMMARY
Good race in store here and a blanket finish is expected , ones with chances for me are KISS THE DICE , who will be hard to beat of levels , others with good form are ,ELEMENTAL WIND , OVER THE HEDGE , IMAGINE , BARSHIBA , BIG FISH , BLACK POX and the eye catcher last week MINUTE MAKER

PREDICTIONS
1ST KISS THE DICE 2ND BIG FISH 3RD OVER THE HEDGE 4TH IMAGINE 5TH BARSHIBA

leecara

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Posts: 382

(05/05/08 2:38 PM)

SOPL Punter's Hall

RACE 4 SUN CHARIOT STAKES 1M G1
LOST BADGE - Ideal conditions here but a shade inconsistant i runs to irish guineas form will be right in this
APPEAL - Just short of top class but trainer has put his money on so he is confident
MISWAKI II - G1 winner last time out looks a top horse short list material
FIRE WARDEN - Another 1 just short of top draw needs to find a length from some were here
THE JUDGE - Decent horse but lacks the ability to win this
OLD KO - Like all fem milers the season been inconsistant looks to prefer 7 but has the ability to win
WEST SONG - Nice horse who needs to reproduce its very best to win here
FLYING DINAH - Showed some early season sparkle latest but has a bit to find with some of these e/w
PAINTED LADY - Most consistant horse in the field will like course will go close
TECKNIKALITY - Horse that has a lot to find here needs a lower grade than this
SARATOGA SUPRISE - Showed its ability in banded event latest needs to go back there to win
ALMOST THERE - Long way of wats required here
CATFISH LAKE - Another who is likely to struggle here
KEEPER - E/w value of the race has a lot of things in its favour one to watch
ELECTRIC - Banded placing to date will struggle here
DISTINCTION - Been running to its name another with a massive chance here
QUAVERS AND CROCHETS - Consistant sort who will go well here could fin in fisrt 3
WITCHERY - Needs to do some to win here likely to stuggle
AND SLEEP - Brave effort in defeat latest trying to make all may need ground firmer e/w chance
TARMAC - Good win in handicap this is toughter but under the same conditions
ISTABRAQ - Won above average rest race but needs to be slightly closer to this better filed
I AM LEGEND - Well btn latest same story awaits here
BORKING - Impressive debut but that was dodgy track cud improve to figure here
QUEEN DEBICKI - Hard race to start career needs to be a machine best watched
BUNGLE - Will be better suited to lesser races best watched here

SUMMARY
To many with chances to call like all these mile races u need luck as it seems to be a differant result every week

PREDICTIONS
1ST ISTABRAQ 2ND MISWAKI II 3RD PAINTED LADY 4TH QUAVERS AND CROCHETS 5TH KEEPER

leecara

[-]

Posts: 383

(05/06/08 4:18 AM)

SOPL Punter's Hall

RACE 6 RACING POST TROPHY
DIM SIM - Totally exposed massive shock if to go close here
THE SOUP NAZI - Looks nailed on here improved for step upto 1m latest hard to beat
CLAPS - Totally exposed running for top 10 finish
GREYLAMI - Top horse always seems to run well could give fav most to do
SPICE RACK - Not bad form but hard to see how its going to stay here best watched
PROUD KING - Impressive debut b4 finding 7f to sharp latest will do well in this
DOUBLE THRILLER - Is a speedball over 5 but stays 1m as well talanted but inconsistant has good chance tho
NEW GAMBO - Dissapointing since top debut bit to prove here tho its a weak race
SILENT WITNESS - Like all of leons horses very consistant top 10 finishes without placing might be same here
SIR THORN - Debutante best watched here said to be a sprinter
SUCKER PUNCH - Form is poor not much hope here
THE REGENT - well btn latest prob see the same happening here
SOULJA BOY - Well btn latest but holds some fancy entries improvemnt is expected but best watched for me
EL A VATION - Couldnt keep up over 7 latest this extra 1f should suit but prob lacks class
STAR OF COZZENE - Running for handicap mark according to trainer but judging by this field it may be quite high
TIPPERARY ALLSTAR - Real eye catching run latest split some top horses must have chance here

SUMMARY
Poor g1 by league standards with only a few realistically in with a shout THE SOUP NAZI will be very hard to beat here won very well latest but needs to translate that form to turf, PROUD KING . TIPPERARY ALLSTAR, AND GREYLAMI all have form to do well in this . 3 at much bigger prices are SOULJA BOY , SILENT WITNESS AND DOUBLE THRILLER

PREDICTIONS
1ST THE SOUP NAZI 2ND GREYLAMI 3RD PROUD KING 4TH DOUBLE THRILLER 5TH SOULJA BOY

jasonpaulburke

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Posts: 510

(05/12/08 3:59 AM)

SOPL Punter's Hall

Hi,

Sorry for the delay. I have been globetrotting all weekend!!

Please choose your race to review and add a reply to this post. If you want to do a specific race please add a reply stating which race, this way it will stop trainers reviewing the same race.Please edit the post though rather than adding a new one.

Week 15

Race	1	£50,000 Jockey Club Cup
Race	2	£90,000 Challenge Stakes
Race	3	£250,000 Dewhurst Stakes
Race	4	£350,000 Champion Stakes
Race	5	£50,000 Darley Stakes
Race	6	£23,500 Zetland Stakes
Race	7	£30,000 Newmarket Mile Handicap
Race	8	£130,000 Cesarewitch Handicap
Race	9	£250,000 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Race	10	£50,000 Cumberland Lodge Stakes
Race	11	£200,000 Irish Field St. Leger
Race	12	£45,000 Irish Pride Handicap
Race	13	£200,000 Salinger Stakes
Race	14	£80,000 Maribyrnong Plate
Race	15	£17,500 Racing Post Nursery
Race	16	£30,000 Mallard Stakes Handicap
Race	17	£50,000 November Stakes Handicap
Race	18	£15,000 Doncaster Stayers` Juvenile (R) - Carl Murphy
Race	19	£25,000 Doncaster Sprint (R) - Vinny Gerrard
Race	20	£25,000 Doncaster Classic (R) - Carl Murphy
Race	21	£500,000 The Green Mile Handicap (B) - Vinny Gerrard
Race	22	£500,000 Beat The Bookie Handicap (B) - Carl Murphy

Last Edited By: jasonpaulburke 05/12/08 5:14 AM. Edited 1 times.

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